Will defeat change Modi, Shah ways?

The Assembly election in Bihar was thought to be close, but the Sunday result has turned out to be one-sided. It is the crushing nature of the defeat — after Prime Minister Narendra Modi showed extraordinary interest in the outcome — that looks to transform the result from a matter pertaining to a single state to possibly one which is a counter-narrative to what has obtained under the leadership of Mr Modi and BJP president Amit Shah.

In remarks to the media after the win, RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav, whose political obituary had been written long ago by observers while his party turned topped the party table, made no bones about his ambition to mount a challenge to the Narendra Modi government nationally.

Bihar’s election-time “mahagathbandhan”, or grand alliance of the JD(U), RJD, and Congress, of course, will be able to make a national pitch to rope in other Opposition parties in a common-themed political front if it remains cohesive at the parliamentary level, without allowing the individual ambitions of parties or leaders to overwhelm other partners.

For the BJP, the news is indeed bad. Its Rajya Sabha numbers will decline after Sunday’s abysmal showing instead of increasing as the party had hoped. This will make the passage of market-oriented reforms in favour of industry and trade even more difficult. At the same time, the BJP’s NDA allies, who have appeared less than enthusiastic about its push for some of the reforms, especially the land acquisition law, could grow even less keen, for fear of alienating the electorate.

The Shiv Sena has lost no time in blaming the defeat on the PM personally, and could behave in contrary ways in Maharashtra. Bihar was the BJP’s first electoral test in the Hindi heartland and a major state after last year’s Lok Sabha poll and simultaneous state elections, and could have a carry-on effect in other states, including in crucial Uttar Pradesh.

It will be interesting to see how the BJP shields Mr Modi and Mr Shah from political downsizing after the Bihar loss. For the duo, the licking in Bihar has followed the humiliation in Delhi, and may contribute to the growing belief that the PM and the BJP chief need to change their ways. This could, if the PM summons practical wisdom, lead to less “arrogance”, not concentrating powers in the PMO, and respecting the Opposition. We could also see the “rising intolerance” being reined in — at last.