Recovery not enough, Congress must reboot

The election results for local bodies in Gujarat have come as a morale booster for the Congress. This is a state in which the party, after dominating it for over four decades, was lying in a comatose state. It had just no answer for the Bharatiya Janata Party and, in the last decade or so, Narendra Modi had effectively finished it off as a serious player. If there was one state where the objective of Congress-mukti had been achieved, it was Gujarat. 

But there are no full stops in politics. The Grand Old Party has come back roaring in the district-level bodies, clearly showing it not only has the support of the rural masses but, more important, its own party structures seem in good shape. Without good candidates and an organisational machinery that functions smoothly, no party can hope to win elections.

 

Coming on top of the party’s better-than-expected performance in Bihar, the Congress should be feeling somewhat buoyant. Add to that its success in getting the government to agree with its views on Goods and Services Tax; the memories of the humiliating defeat in 2014 may now look like a distant nightmare. 

That would be a mistake. The “green shoots of recovery”, to use the favourite word of Indian analysts who try and talk up the economy, are anything but. The two good back-to-back electoral performances can in no way be extrapolated to show that the party is on the road to recovery; if a general election is held today, the Congress cannot hope to do much better than what it did, even if some of the sheen has faded from the BJP.

 

Take the Gujarat results, for example. They clearly show that that the urban voter, at least in that state, is not enamoured of the Congress. Apart from Rajkot, where it was in a neck-to-neck race with the BJP, the BJP won comprehensively. Across the country, the Congress has limited support among urban voters. They backed  Mr Modi the last time, and there is a good chance they will do so again, unless another alternative emerges in the coming years. Second, the Bihar victory came as part of a grand coalition in which the Congress was the junior partner. It played the catalyst’s role in bringing two arch enemies together — and more important, keeping them together — but did not lead the combine. Will it be ready to do so in other states, such as Uttar Pradesh? That will require a big strategic shift in the Congress way of thinking; in the past the party has shown a remarkable ability to mould itself to circumstances — who would have thought it would successfully run coalitions at the Centre — but to play second fiddle to say, Mayawati or Mamata Banerjee will not be easy.

 

Most crucially, several factors contribute to electoral victories, including the voters’ disillusionment with the other party; what the Congress needs is a major structural overhaul. It has to revamp not just the party organisation, but also to clearly lay out what its ideological positions are. Rahul Gandhi has been attacking the Prime Minister and scoring a few points too, but jibes and mockery can only go so far. His speech in Bengaluru won him the support of young Indians who saw him as willing to take criticism and full of interesting ideas. But that could be a flash in the pan — will these very youngsters vote for his party? Will they be convinced that what the Congress has to offer is any better than what the BJP promises? There is some disappointment with the performance of the National Democratic Alliance government at the Centre, but that could easily change. The bigger question is — what does the Congress really stand for?

 

The Congress has not convincingly put forward its own programme on critical issues. It has to still build on the big themes, such as secularism, tolerance and inclusiveness. A march here or a statement there, to respond to events, doesn’t add up to much. It is not enough to invoke past leaders nor can it remain content in pointing out the BJP’s failures. Many Indians are aghast and angry at the rise in communally-linked violence and the incendiary statements that Hindutva types have been making. Citizens — from artists to writers to film stars to students — have come forward and protested against the rising intolerance in the country. The Congress has added its voice, but it is not a strong, clear one. Questions arise: Is it willing to come out and lead a campaign against this rise in the communal temperature? Is it ready to lead the way and make an unambiguous statement that it will always oppose any attempts to sow hatred? Or will it remain mealy mouthed and soft-pedal on the issue?

 

For this, it needs to get back to its first principles, to unequivocally say it stands for a secular India. Only then will the Congress be able to establish not just what it is but how it is different from the BJP. Only then will all those Indians who are worried about what is happening in India, but see no alternative, look at the Congress seriously. Nitish Kumar did not fall into the trap of indulging in soft-Hindutva and Lalu Prasad Yadav took on the BJP for its attempts at polarisation. Occasionally a statement comes from the Congress, but the organisation needs to make a robust commitment to secular values to really stand out.

 

Elections will come and go. In some of the forthcoming state level elections, the Congress stands a good chance of doing well. This will help in preparing for the 2019 elections. But building the party’s machine is one part of it; offering itself as an all-round alternative is another. The BJP’s losses have not made much difference to Mr Modi’s popularity, nor have Mr Gandhi’s recent outreach turned him into a formidable rival. For the Congress, any chance of a good performance in 2019 is still a chimera, notwithstanding the victories in Bihar and Gujarat.