India and the war on ISIS

The past few days have been good for Indian diplomacy as there were attempts to enh-ance economic growth. The UN climate talks in Paris have ended with an agreement between 195 countries to tackle global warming with most of India’s concerns being met. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to India led to agreements on defence and a memorandum of understanding on peaceful use of civil nuclear energy. This could unlock the doors for building American, French and Japanese civil reactors in India, since some Japanese-built components are essential for the American and French plants.

Most importantly, Japan which took 50 years to build bullet trains representing 2,175 km, has offered an unprecedented 50 year-long-term $12 billion loan at the simple interest of 0.1 per cent to build the 600-km Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train. India has, of course, reciprocated by agreeing with Japan (and the United States) about freedom of navigation in South China Sea, permanent participation of Japan in the annual Indo-US Malabar naval exercises and offering visa on arrival to all Japanese citizens with effect from March 1, 2016.

After losing out to Japan to build India’s first bullet train network, China — which has $4 trillion to spare for foreign investment — said it has still kept its options open to pursue cooperation with India in the high-speed rail sector as it is carrying out feasibility studies in two different corridors. India has been quick to react to the changing global threat scenario and defence minister Manohar Parrikar visited the US, where he was also taken onboard an American nuclear aircraft carrier (USS Nimitz) to show how the latest electro-magnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS) works.

This same system has been offered to India for its planned 65,000-tonnne aircraft carrier. Media reports also indicate American willingness to participate in the “Make in India” initiative. It has offered to jointly upgrade the F-414 jet engine (already planned for the indigenous fighter aircraft LCA MK2) to make it compatible with the needs of the futuristic Indian-designed and Indian-built AMCA (advanced medium combat aircraft) stealth fighter aircraft. Apparently, the US has again offered the F-18 and F-16 fighter jets under the “Make in India” programme. It is understood that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Russia shortly, and apart from signing agreements on defence (making 200 light helicopters of the KA-226 type to replace the obsolete Chetak and Cheetah helicopters used by the Indian military), he would definitely discuss the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria with President Vladimir Putin. Given the well-known differences between Russia and the West,

Mr Modi needs to use all his diplomatic skills to ensure that India’s need for nuclear submarines and stealth aircraft (SSN type and fifth generation stealth fighter aircraft, which only Russia is willing to supply) are met. Obviously, there are “no free lunches” in the world of realpolitik and all this cooperation will not come free. The US, who is unwilling to put “boots on the ground” (Army land forces) in the fight against the ISIS, has “requested” India to join this campaign which has America, the UK, France and Russia using airpower to destroy and degrade ISIS. Recently, Mr Parrikar announced that India could join the fight against the ISIS if the UN passed a resolution, and Indian forces operated under the UN flag. The recent Saudi announcement that a 24-nation Islamic group has been formed to combat the ISIS indicates the seriousness of this threat. India must join the global war against the ISIS, but only under the UN flag.

Keeping in mind that sending ground combat troops would result in heavy casualties (and “body bags” coming back with adverse public reaction”, India should avoid sending “boots on the ground” unless the major nations (the US, China, Russia, France and the UK) also agree. It would be ideal if the ground combat troops are sent by the 24 Islamic nations group announced by Saudi Arabia, while India could send a field military hospital with some combat troops to provide security to our hospital staff. India’s military participation should ideally be limited to airstrikes by the Indian Navy’s MiG-29K fighter aircraft operating from the aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya and shore-based IAF fighter aircraft provided the IAF can get an operating base in a friendly country like Oman or Egypt. Standard operating procedures would need to be worked out with combat forces of other nations to avoid mutual interference.

India will come under increasing pressure from the US and possibly Japan to participate in the South China Sea Freedom of Navigation Patrols (SCS-FONP), which are being conducted in the disputed Chinese built artificial islands by US Navy warships and Australian Air Force maritime patrol aircraft. I had written in my last article (Indian Navy’s blue water quest, December 4), that while India should support the SCS-FONP, its Navy simply does not have the capability for sustained long-range blue water operations in areas where the Chinese Navy would have overwhelming naval and air superiority. India is not member of any military alliance and hence it must act within its known present military capabilities and limitations. Nonetheless, since the SCS-FONP would be a long-drawn affair, it would be wise to enhance Indian naval strength with “off-the-shelf transfers” to India of operational American warships and Japanese conventional submarines, so that India can in next three-four years begin to participate independently in SCS-FONP.

The writer retired as Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command, Visakhapatnam

 

 

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