It’s payback time

Prime Minister Narendra Modi ends 2015 with a diplomatic flourish by swinging through Lahore, returning from Russia and Afghanistan, to greet Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on his birthday and his grand-daughter’s wedding. Such informality between heads of government is rare, but between leaders of India and Pakistan, unimaginable.

Mr Modi, in 2015, had a full calendar of diplomatic activity. The focus was on the United States, United Nations Security Council’s P-5 and G-20 members, immediate neighbours, extended neighbourhood in the Gulf, Central Asia and East Asia and UN, and regional groups like Association of Southeast Asian Nations, East Asia Summit, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation as well as focused groups like Brics, G-4 (Brazil, Germany, Japan and India), etc. These themes have been standard fare for each Prime Minister since P.V. Narasimha Rao. But Mr Modi has brought a new style and theatre to their pursuit.

The year opened with Barack Obama becoming the first US President to visit India twice during his term and the first to be chief guest at India’s Republic Day. The annual India-Russia Summit, initiated in 2000, was held weeks earlier, in December 2014, to balance closer engagement with the US and the West. This year ends the same way with the 15th Annual India-Russia summit just held in Moscow.

In 2015, President Vladimir Putin re-positioned Russia in West Asia, opposing radical Islamist forces like the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and siding with Iran, Bashar al-Assad in Syria and their Shia allies like Iraq and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Mr Obama’s hesitancy, European diffidence and Turkish confusion allowed Mr Putin space. The Modi-Putin talks were held in this new context. India has to ensure Russia does not align with China and Pakistan more firmly.

All diplomacy is first tested in a nation’s neighbourhood. The scorecard was mixed over the last year. Nepal triggered a standoff by adopting a Constitution discriminating against Madhes groups. On December 20, their Cabinet announced a “three-point” road map on delineation of electoral constituencies and inclusive and proportionate representation and a rectifying mechanism via a report in three months. The United Democratic Madhesi Front representing the Madhes groups rejected the proposal, while India welcomed it. India needs to woo the alienated ruling groups, upset by perceived Indian connivance in disruption of transport links, while retaining Madhes’ goodwill. The next few months will test Indian diplomacy.

Mr Modi’s visit to Bangladesh on June 6-7 was successful as the sensitive exchange of enclaves was finessed by the Land Boundary Agreement, approved by Indian Parliament. Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, confronting religious extremism, deserves Indian support. West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s presence underscored the Joint Declaration’s call for a new phase of “mature and practical approach”. Sharing river waters, particularly of the Teesta, is still under study, but greater security cooperation is already showing results.

The January presidential election in Sri Lanka led to the upset defeat of incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa by his former minister of health, Maithripala Sirisena. Parliamentary elections followed in August, further marginalising the Rajapaksa faction. Initially, the new dispensation indicated a course correction from the previous regime’s pro-China tilt. Now it appears that Chinese projects already granted will go ahead, including sensitive port development and land allotment in Sri Lanka’s capital Colombo. The perceived India-China rivalry, which is often exploited by India’s neighbours, is also playing out in the Maldives, where India’s hands-off approach is allowing democratic institutions to be undermined. In both Sri Lanka and the Maldives, Indian interests are precariously balanced.

The third India-Africa Summit (October 26-30), was held on a massive scale with 41 of 54 nations represented by respective heads of government and heads of state. The Delhi Declaration, titled “Partners in Progress”, extensively lists activities for India-Africa cooperation. In reality, India enhanced the credit facility, kept grants relatively capped, but increased the training slots. Africa is important for food security, vital minerals and metals for the burgeoning Indian economy, and as a market for Indian goods. Africa is also critical to UNSC reform.

Mr Modi widened his diplomatic reach by receiving the Emir of Qatar, then visiting the UAE, the first Prime Minister since Indira Gandhi to do so. He landed in each of the six Central Asian capitals on his way to and back from the BRICS/SCO summits in July in Ufa, Russia. One concrete result may be the stone-laying of the Turkemanistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline in December, 2015.

In May, Mr Modi combined a visit to the Republic of Korea and Mongolia, on the Chinese periphery, while visiting China. He messaged that India too can play the game China has been playing in the Indian neighbourhood for decades. He returned to East Asia with the Asean/ East Asia Summits in Kuala Lumpur in November. A second visit to Singapore revealed his wooing of a nation that is the hub of finance and investment as indeed smart city planning.

Mr Modi established personal relations with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Germany, France and the UK constitute the core of Europe as a possible pole in a multi-polar world. Japan is an anchor for Indo-Pacific maritime partnership to ensure Asian stability and freedom of navigation.

Relations with Pakistan followed cycles of engagement and dissonance, perhaps due to electoral politics. Swearing-in warmth dissipated as elections approached in Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, and Delhi. Mr Modi met Nawaz Sharif at Ufa, but the wording of the joint statement and conflicting claims ensured a continued freeze in relations. However, the pace of engagement accelerated after their talks in Paris ahead of COP21, resulting in the national security adviser-level talks, minister for external affairs Sushma Swaraj attending the Heart of Asia Conference in Pakistan and, now, Mr Modi’s Lahore stopover.

The jury is still out on whether this is a leap in the dark or a brave new peace move.

In 2016, India expects concrete outcomes from Mr Modi’s extensive past travels and outreach, i.e., on UNSC reform, a free trade agreement with the European Union, Saarc connectivity and trade, etc. Mr Modi’s foreign policy has passed the formative stage. It is now payback time.

The writer is a former secretary in the external affairs ministry