Diplomatic Enclave: Indo-US agreement

Indo-US relations seem to move into a closer accord following the 2+2 dialogue between External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and their US counterparts, secretaries of state and defence, Mike Pompeo and James Mattis.  

India signed up to the US Communications Security Memorandum of Agreement (COMCASA), the second of the three “foundational agreements” that Washington has been pushing since ties moved into a different trajectory with the signing of the Indo-US civil nuclear energy cooperation agreement. To further emphasis the growing sense of ease on military cooperation, a major tri-service exercise is planned for next year on the Bay of Bengal coast.

It was described as a historic moment by US spokesperson, an indication of the deepening strategic partnership between the US and India and “India’s emergence as a net security provider in the region.” The main outcome of the dialogue was defence related though the two sides also agreed to establish a hotline between their Foreign Offices in Washington and New Delhi. As Sitharaman said, the defence cooperation is “a key driver of the Indo-US relationship.”

Comcasa creates communications compatibility, which would allow India acess to America’s super secure communications systems. As the agreement has not been made public, there is little clarity on what conditions India would have to meet to allow access. But it would open the doors for further defence contracts with the US.

The implementation of the agreements would draw India closer to the American security architecture for the Indo-Pacific despite New Delhi’s aversion to being part of a formalised Quadrilateral rouping. During the talks in Delhi, Swaraj said that there was a growing convergence of view on the Indo-Pacific. “We see the Indo-Pacific as a free, open and inclusive” concept, defined by a common, rules based order. The US is keen to draw India closer into the Quadrilateral – the informal grouping of the US, Australia, Japan and India, but New Delhi is reluctant to be part of an entity that can be perceived as targeting China. The Indian side agreed to continue informal talks at mid-level government officials. Officials have met twice already, in Manila during the Asean summit and in Singapore on the margins of the Shangri La dialogue.

Despite the prevailing view in Delhi that Washington will allow a waiver to the US law, Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions, (CAATSA) American officials have pointedly said that no decision had been taken by the US regarding India’s plans to buy S-400 missile defence systems from Russia. The unilateral American decision to impose sanctions against Russia through enacting a stringent domestic law has a direct impact on India, especially as India still obtains about 60 percent of its defence requirement from Russia. Even if Washington agrees to a waiver for the S-400 missile as the deal was already under negotiation when the US law was enacted, the sanctions would surely apply to any further purchases from Russia.

Neither was there any satisfaction on the other cause of concern, the sanctions against Iran and the demand that countries cut down to zero their imports of Iranian oil. Iran is India’s third largest oil supplier, supplying a grade of oil compatible for Indian refineries at a competitive cost. Instead American officials point to American oil and defence deals as good substitutes for Iranian oil and Russian arms.

During the Trump administration it is the defence ties that have seen greater traction. India has been designated a ‘major defence partner’ by the US and earlier this year Washington added India to the Strategic Trade Authorisation-l List that allows easier  import of hi-tech equipment. But, India has not become a favoured American ally; the Indo-US relationship is still buffeted by Trump’s unpredictability and his transactional style that intensifies the long pending trade and other issues. It is trade that continues to be flagged in Washington. Trump rails at China and India for the large trade deficit, as Trump famously declared last week, subsidies to China and India would be stopped. As Trump points to India’s US $23 billion trade surplus, Indian officials look at increasing shale oil purchases from the US and commercial aircraft deals to ward off the pressure.

Shortly after the 2+2 dialogue, Swaraj left for Moscow for the annual Inter Governmental Commission meeting (IGC) with her counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Yuri Borisov.

The IGC will prepare the ground for the next annual summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in early October in New Delhi.

Both sides would give a push to enhance their ties under the shadow of American sanctions. New Delhi has been on edge over the rapidly expanding relations between Moscow and Islamabad, especially over the Afghanistan issue and closer ties between their defence forces. The summit will restore some balance in India’s global strategic relations.