Dec quarter exports to record growth yearly and sequentially: Exim Bank
While geo-political tensions are shrouding the prospects of trade across the globe, Exim Bank is hopeful that the country will see positive growth in merchandise exports in the ongoing quarter
Chennai: Exim Bank has projected that merchandise exports in the ongoing December quarter will touch $107.5 billion, registering a yearly growth of 1.85 per cent and sequential gain of 5 per cent.
While geo-political tensions are shrouding the prospects of trade across the globe, Exim Bank is hopeful that the country will see positive growth in merchandise exports in the ongoing quarter.
According to its forecast, India’s merchandise exports will amount US$ 107.5 billion in the quarter, 1.85 per cent higher than $104.61 per cent in the same quarter last year. It would also be 5 per cent higher than the exports of $102.34 billion in the previous September quarter.
Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of India’s continued strong economic activity backed by sustained momentum in manufacturing and services sector, improving demand prospects in trading partners, supported by expected global monetary easing, said Exim Bank in its forecast.
However, it also added a word of caution. “The outlook is, however, subject to risks of global uncertain prospects in select advanced and emerging economies, geoeconomic fragmentation, the middle east and west Asia crisis, risk of intensification of protectionist policies, and global supply chain disruptions, among other factors,” it said.
Non-oil exports and non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are projected to clock better growth in the quarter. Non-oil exports are forecast to amount $ 91.7 billion, with a y-o-y growth of 7.39 per cent. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount $ 82.7 billion, with a y-o-y growth of 7.8 per cent.
Exim Bank finds that the positive growth rate in total merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports, are likely to continue in the last quarter of the financial year as well.
Merchandise exports had registered positive growth in the June quarter at $109.11 billion against $101.87 billion in the same quarter of last year. However, in the September quarter, it declined to $102.34 billion against $107.5 billion in Q2 FY24.