Macro data, foreign investment trend to drive stock market

New Delhi: Macroeconomic data, foreign investment, dollar-rupee movement and crude oil will dictate the stock market trend in the holiday-shortened week ahead, say experts. Stock markets would remain closed on Monday for Maha Shivratri. Data for industrial production for January would come on Friday. Besides, prospects of a possible interest rate cut may also keep markets volatile, experts said.

"With no major cues in the domestic markets, all eyes are now on Reserve Bank. Expectation of a rate cut has started building up now as the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has retained FY17 fiscal deficit target at 3.5 per cent of GDP," said Vijay Singhania, Founder-Director, Trade Smart Online.

Over the last week, the benchmark BSE Sensex zoomed by 1,492.18 points or 6.44 per cent to 24,646.48, its biggest weekly gain in four years. "The Budget inspired the markets to bottom out and saw frontline indices rally by over 6 per cent nearly recouping all of the losses of the month of February. Action was broad- based and driven by fresh buying interest from FIIs," said Ravi Shenoy, AVP-Midcaps Research, Motilal Oswal Securities.

Market experts said now that the Budget is over, focus will shift to quarterly earnings. Also investors would keenly monitor the Budget session of Parliament with regard to key reform bills. "Markets will watch out for the rate cut in the immediate term. Post that, quarterly results, monsoons, implementation of Budget proposals and reforms will be the important triggers for the markets," said Dipen Shah, Senior Vice-President and Head of Private Client Group Research, Kotak Securities.