BJP bastion Nagpur South-West won't be cakewalk for Fadnavis: Political experts

While Fadnavis has a strong chance of winning the seat in the November 20 state polls, it could be a close contest between him and his Congress rival Prafulla Gudhade Patil, whom the BJP leader trounced in 2014, they said.

The flooding in some areas of the constituency after heavy rains last year and inflation are among the most discussed topics among the electorate in the high-profile seat, comprising 4,08,149 voters.

The BJP is hoping to blunt the opposition's campaign by highlighting Ladki Bahin Yojana, a financial aid scheme for the poor women, and other welfare measures for different sections of the society, political analysts said.

Some prominent establishments like the Multi Modal international Cargo Hub and Airport at Nagpur (MIHAN), AIIMS, IIM Nagpur are located in the constituency and Fadnavis, who is seeking a sixth term, is expected is to score over his opponent on the development plank, they said.

"Nagpur South-West is BJP's stronghold but for the first time, it would be anything but a cakewalk. While it still looks like going the BJP's way due to the formidable presence of Fadnavis, his Congress rival is no minnow," political analyst Vivek Deshpande told PTI.

Patil, an ex-corporator, has been a familiar name and is banking on anti-incumbency and public displeasure against unemployment and price rise, he said.

"Unlike Fadnavis, who has acquired a halo around himself in the last 10 years - first as CM and later as Deputy CM, Patil, a Kunbi, maintains a low profile and works silently to do networking in the public," he said.

"This time, Fadnavis faces a tough challenge to keep afloat, looking at his massive campaign rollout through hoardings which have sprung up in every nook and corner of the constituency," Deshpande said.

The constituency comprises about one lakh Dalits, 70,000 kunbis, 60,000 Brahmins, 30,000 Telis and 20,000 Mali voters that might serve Patil better this time than previously, when the Constitution issue was not raised, he opined.

"All in all, Fadnavis can't rest as much assured this time as on the previous two occasions," Deshpande said.

Local resident Dr Archana Deshpande said she and some other people were disappointed by the response of local authorities and the government after flooding when the Ambazari lake overflowed following heavy rains in the area in September 2023.

"We could not get timely help and the flood water entered our homes, causing damage. Our roads are not proper, there is no cleanliness and no proper intervention was done to stop the spread of Chikangunya in our area, which was preventable," said the resident of Shankar Nagar in the constituency.

Listing other problems, including inflation, the doctor claimed though electors are not happy, maximum votes would go to the BJP and Fadnavis as the people have no better alternative.

Joseph John, resident of Ajni in the constituency, said he feels Fadnavis will win, but there will be a tough fight. "Being the former CM and present deputy chief minister, Fadnavis has an edge. He has never lost from this constituency. All these factors seem to be going Fadnavis' way," John said.

A resident of Ambazari in the constituency, who did not wish to be identified, said a section of locals would like to see a change in power this time. He raised concerns over the alleged illegal constructions around Ambazari.

He said many people like him voted for the BJP last time, but the party midway took along NCP (of Ajit Pawar) which was "not right".  Political analyst Pradip Kumar Maitra said Prafulla Gudhade Patil's father Vinod Gudhade Patil was the first BJP MLA from Nagpur district in 1990.

The senior Patil was a two-term MLA from Nagpur-West before he left the BJP and joined Congress. He fought as Congress candidate in the 1999 assembly polls and lost to Fadnavis, who was then contesting his first state election.

The Nagpur South-West constituency is home to many big ticket establishments. Also, the Nagpur Metro came up during Fadnavis' rule and the credit goes to him as well as Union minister Nitin Gadkari, Maitra said.

Nearly one lakh direct job avenues have been created in MIHAN and other establishments, which will give electoral dividends to Fadnavis and the opposition will find it tough to dent his credibility, he said.

"Prafulla Gudadhe Patil is good youth leader. He does not have that stature to counter Fadnavis, but will give a strong fight to Fadnavis, whose winning margin may come down," the analyst said.

The Congress candidate has claimed that the seat will throw up an upset in the polls because his opponent Fadnavis has lost his "ground connect".