Monsoon forecast for Kerala depressing: Expert

Kochi: The question of whether Kerala is heading for a drought is likely to be dismissed as too premature by the mandarins of the met department.

The sharp decline in rainfall in June, the first month of the southwest monsoon, combined with dwindling water-levels in the reservoirs, however, makes it a real concern for ordinary folks.

The decline in rainfall in June by 44 per cent from the long-term average is unlikely to be compensated in July, feels Dr Dinesan V.P., senior principal scientist and head geomatics division.

The forecast for the next few days is only light to moderate rains in most parts of the state.

According to a weather expert in Kochi, the north and coastal district may witness some rainfall on July 4-5, and after that, the only hope is from July 10 or 11.

The average long term rainfall in the four-month south-west monsoon season is around 2,100 mm. Out of this the first month of June accounts for 643 mm and July 720 mm. The months of August and September, the precipitation will be in the range of 426.7 mm and 259.5 mm.

According to Dr Dinesan, the rainfall in July, keeping the levels of a long-term normal average of 720 mm, is not enough to compensate for the deficit in June. The indication available so far is not providing scope for any optimism in this regard, he said.  

Although the situation looks grim, the authorities concerned seem to be oblivious of the seriousness of the situation.  

Kerala is not alone in facing such a precarious situation. Farming operations in south Telangana and parts of interior Karnataka have come to a standstill due to the lack of rains. If the present trend continues, it can even lead to a famine-like situation.

Apart from farming, in Kerala, the power generation is likely to be one of the worst affected sectors as the water level in reservoirs is less than 20 per cent of the storage capacity. In Munnar, reservoirs of Mattupetty and Kundala dams have already dried up due to the lack of rains.