COVID-19 graph steady and plateauing in Kerala, say experts

KOCHI: Even as the COVID-19 transmission graph is on a downward trend in the country, Kerala’s pandemic case graph has been plateauing. For the last one week, the daily caseload is showing a stable trend without any big surge. In the last week, the state has been reporting an average of 6,600 to 8,700 cases while the daily caseload crossed 10,000 and 11,000 during the initial weeks of October.

The doubling interval of the cases has also increased. In mid September, the doubling time was 23.2 days which further came down to 17.2 days by October first week and the time interval has now increased to 41.1 days.

On Tuesday, 6,862 fresh cases were reported of the 61,138 samples tested. The number of samples tested per day is nearly 50,000 to 60,000 for the last couple of weeks. The test positivity rate which reached 15 per cent during the initial weeks of October has dipped to 11.2 per cent. The number of deaths reported per day is hovering around 25 to 29. The state has been maintaining a very low fatality rate since the beginning of the pandemic.

The public health experts had earlier pointed out chances for stabilisation of the virus graph by the end of October.

“For the last couple of weeks, the daily case graph is showing a steady trend. If people strictly follow the health protocol, the state may see a downward trend in coming months. But, we can conclusively say that the situation is under control when the test positivity rate is less than five per cent, which is still around 11 percent. Still, it is a good sign that the positivity rate has dipped,” said Dr. Joseph Chacko, state president of Kerala Government Medical Officers Association.

“However, the upcoming Sabarimala pilgrim season and the local body elections are likely to upset the steady transmission graph. Though the pilgrims with COVID-19 negative certificates will be allowed to enter the Ayyappa temple, drivers, cleaners and other people coming with pilgrims might spread the virus as negative certificates are not mandatory for them. The local body election is another major concern as social distancing norms and other protocols will not be followed strictly during the campaign and election process. There are chances for increase in mortality rate if preventive measures are not taken during massive exercise like elections as the vulnerable groups will be exposed,” he added.

Though it is too early to predict the descending phase of virus transmission in the state, the health experts are relieved over the high number of recoveries and steady case graph.

The state has so far reported 1559 deaths and the number of active cases is 84,713.

“I think the surge has stopped and the graph is plateauing out slowly. The state is likely to see a downward trend by this month's end. If people follow social distancing and hygiene norms and behave with commonsense, the situation will improve much by January. I hope by January or February, Kerala can go back to 80 per cent normalcy,” said a health expert on condition of anonymity.

He added that despite allegations that COVID-19 deaths are not being properly reported, Kerala's numbers are way better than the global figures. He further added that even if 50 percent of deaths are being reported, the state is still in a better position compared to Europe, US and UK.