Can Fronts brave summer blues?

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The torrid summer will have a searing impact on electioneering as conventionally March-May spell in Kerala gives no respite from weather, barring occasional summer showers.     

Generally, the weather during the pre-monsoon month - May - is hot with ample humidity. This peculiar characteristic leads to the formation of widespread thundershowers with occasional severe thunder and lightning.

In May, the temperature decreases slightly and the quantum of pre-monsoon rainfall increases in Kerala, when the southwest monsoon is just about to make its onset over the State, which is considered to be the gateway of southwest monsoon.

It is still hot, though, with an average daily temperature of about 29°C, says research scientist Manoj M.G. at the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research of Cochin University of Science and Technology.

Last year, the April-May season saw a peak of heavy rainfall associated with thunderstorms which were triggered by abnormal warming of the southwest Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea and the peninsular area.

The average minimum temperature during May 2015 was close to 26 °C, while the average maximum temperature touched 33 °C in central Kerala. In May this year, mercury levels are expected to be higher than the corresponding figures in 2015, assumed to be associated with less amount of thundershowers.

Though the El-Nino event, which produces severe droughts over the Indian region, is now observed to be in a moderate stage, the weather over Kerala this year has produced unprecedented sweltering heat associated with anomalous circulation pattern. The remaining pre-monsoon months also may witness the remnants of this abnormality.

Weather prediction over the tropical region is a perplexing task compared to that over high latitude geographical regions lying near the poles While a good prediction can be made over high-latitude continental regions with prior knowledge of wind speed and its direction, tropical weather prediction suffers from greater challenge and hence poor accuracy because it is equally influenced by direct insolation (exposure to the sun's rays).

Thus the challenging thermodynamics is a major hindrance for accurate and extended range weather prediction over the tropical Indian region. The accuracy of current weather prediction models is higher for short-term periods (3-4 days) only.