SC-OBC-Lingayat: New BJP caste arithmetic in Karnataka

BENGALURU: The decision of many Congress leaders to defect to the BJP will certainly serve as a morale booster, but for the party to win 150 seats in next year’s elections to the Legislative Assembly, leaders are set to work on a new formula: consolidation of votes of the Scheduled Castes, OBCs and Lingayats across the state to make up for likely deficit in districts where the party lacks a support base.

Sources in the party said the new strategy is in the nascent stage, but the other hurdle to cross the 150-mark will be winning seats in the Vokkaliga heartland. Sources said the party has a problem winning seats in Old Mysuru region.

It drew a blank in five districts including Hassan, Mandya, Bengaluru (Rural), Chikkaballapur and Chamarajanagar districts in 2008 elections when the party managed to win 110 seats and subsequently formed government with the support of independent legislators.

“Every district has, on an average, eight assembly segments and out of 40 assembly seats in the five districts, the party did not win even one seat in 2008 Assembly polls. To cross the 150-seat mark, we have to win at least two-to-three seats in every district,” sources said.

The problem BJP now encounters in Vokkaliga dominated districts: It is finding it hard to get any leaders from the community who can win on his or her personal charisma rather banking on the party symbol.

“S.M. Krishna quitting the Congress may not help BJP. Who knows it may help JD(S)? JD(S) rebels are afraid they will be defeated in next elections if they contest from the constituencies they represent now. They approached us with a request to come to Bengaluru city. Since we have many potential candidates here, we may not accommodate them here. They think, Vokkaliga voters may punish them for betraying Vokkaliga icon, H.D. Deve Gowda. Two, these leaders know well that they will not get Muslim votes if they contest on BJP tickets in their constituencies. So, Vokkaliga leaders are not inclined to joining us,” sources explained.

The party has also to widen its base in some parts of Tumakuru, Yadgir, Raichur and Ballari in case it has to reach a strength of 135 in 2018 Assembly elections. “Last time, JD(S) betraying BJP was the poll plank, and it worked in the Lingayat belt for CM candidate, B.S. Yeddyurappa. This time, anti-incumbency is the factor. We are watching the intensity of this one. Politically, anti-incumbency can be more lethal than emotional factors such as betrayal. If the anti-incumbency factor runs deep, we may have a chance to turn the trend in our favour,” sources explained.

BSY rivals to meet party top brass over appointments
Irked by state BJP president B.S. Yeddyurappa’s recalcitrant attitude on retaining office-bearers of district units, his detractors and second rung leaders of the party have decided to petition central leaders for a reshuffle of office-bearers across the state.

Late on Friday, these leaders from 12 districts met at former MLA Sogadu Shivanna’s residence in Tumakuru and decided to approach central leaders with a plea to change office-bearers as they belong to erstwhile KJP floated by Mr Yeddyurappa.

These leaders, predominantly Lingayats, alleged that leader of Opposition in the Council K.S. Eshwarappa, who took up cudgels against the Lingayat strongman on the issue of appointments to district units, was now hand-in-glove with the former CM and had given up his demand. Besides, Mr Yeddyurappa has not held a meeting of the coordination committee even after party president Amit Shah asked him to do so, sources in the party told DC.  

Former MLC Shivayogiswamy, MLC Somanna Benvina Marada, Banuprakash, Sogadu Shivanna, S.R. Ravindranath, and Nandeesh constitute this group.
These leaders criticized Mr Yeddyurappa for ignoring a section of Lingayat leaders in Tumakuru, Davanagere, Haveri, Chamarajanagar, Ramanagar, and Chitradurga districts while pointing out that their rivals and erstwhile KJP leaders were given prominent posts in these districts.