Flock together, but Sasikala's fate hangs on SC verdict in assets case

Chennai: The immediate political future of Tamil Nadu is uncertain. Assuming that Governor Ch Vidyasagar Rao goes just by the number of legislators in support of VK Sasikala and swears her in as the Chief Minister, the state could be in for a spell of great uncertainty, if the Supreme Court verdict in the disproportionate assets case goes against her.

It is, however, not the complexity of the scenarios that may be keeping the Governor away from Chennai. There are major forces at play here which are ranged against Sasikala taking the reins of power formally.

For decades she had been the de facto power centre at Poes Garden dealing with politics on behalf of the late chief minister J. Jayalalithaa, who had become more and more inaccessible to her own party men.  Her ambition to gain the throne is only for a de jure anointing. While her experience in dealing with her party politicians makes her suitable enough to be able to administer the party, it remains to be seen if she has the administrative acuity to run the state.

Even a well administered state like Tamil Nadu had been dealing with an extra constitutional authority for a couple of decades now. Jaya’s presence, however, was so imposing that no one dared question the decision making, especially as it came at the behest of a fellow resident of Poes Garden. But then the history of Indian politics is pockmarked with power sources behind the throne. If a Lalu Prasad Yadav could be the de facto CM even after conviction in a PCA case by foisting his wife Rabri Devi on the throne, the claims of Sasikala are far greater when it comes to political experience.

O Panneerselvam conducted himself as Chief Minister in his third innings when he was given the space because the Centre was happy coordinating with him. A string of decisions that controlled emergency situations post-Vardah cyclone, Jallikattu protests which snowballed into a mass movement and the water crisis showed that when the hour came the man was there to handle it. While continuing with the arrangement would have suited New Delhi, his success could not have made the same impression in Poes Garden, which has been the centre of power for years whenever AIADMK has been in power since 1991.

The usual process of proving a majority has already begun with the shepherding of MLAs into the premises of a luxury hotel. The one thing to be said most in Sasikala’s favour is she has kept her flock together. In this AIADMK has been adept over the years by means of a carrot-and-stick policy. Having learnt the ropes from a mentor who knew how to put a price on anyone’s loyalty, Sasikala may have picked up the art well enough.

Nowadays, when bargaining for power is common practice, it is a major achievement to keep a one-person centric party going without letting it break up. Of course, any scenario in a post-unfavourable verdict, if it comes about, would be different. If the verdict falls in line with the surprise one by the Karnataka High Court, no force may be able to stop Sasikala and her family from occupying the centre stage in Tamil Nadu for, presumably, the next four and a half years.

Much is being said about the gathering public support, as reflected on social media, for the rebel OPS. But winning by-elections is something that the Dravidian parties have also been adept at. So, that there is no scenario in which Sasikala could not be elected from a safe seat in a caste-oriented region in the south might be the political strategy that is already being discussed. Meanwhile, everyone in Tamil Nadu is keeping fingers crossed for the top court’s verdict expected on Friday or the coming Monday.