Sasikala versus Panneerselvam: What's next in this high-octane drama?

Chennai: After O Panneerselvam’s revolt against AIADMK general secretary Sasikala Natarajan’s claim to becoming the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, several questions have arisen as to the future course of events. Here are some answers:

Though Governor CH Vidyasagar Rao has already accepted Panneerselvam’s resignation, he may ascertain whether Panneerselvam enjoys a majority in the House, if the latter says his resignation was sought under duress.

The acting Chief Minister requires 117 of the 233 MLAs with him to stake claim to form a government. As of now, Panneerselvam remains the acting CM because the Governor has asked him to continue until ‘alternative arrangements are made’.

However, if Rao feels that the government machinery has broken down, he can request the Centre to impose President’s Rule in the state.

The Governor can swear in Sasikala as the Chief Minister since the AIADMK legislature party has already elected her. But given Panneerselvam’s revolt, he will have to first ascertain as to who holds the majority of MLAs.

Though Panneerselvam’s assertion that Sasikala has no right to expel him from the AIADMK does not stand ground, his position as caretaker CM is in the Governor’s hands. Vidyasagar Rao may adopt a ‘wait and watch policy’ before appointing Sasikala as the CM. He could also choose to appoint another face, if he feels that person commands support of a majority of MLAs.

An anti-defection law is in place to prevent legislators from switching parties on a whim. Under the present law, a legislature party cannot split. However, if 2/3^rd of the members of the AIADMK legislature party, i.e. 90 members, were to split, they could merge with another party.

Meanwhile, the DMK is watching the drama unfold from the sidelines. While it could back Panneerselvam, whether it can do so for the next 4 years – until the next Assembly polls – remains to be seen.