Misinformation tops Global Risks 2024

Mumbai: Misinformation and disinformation are the biggest short-term risks (over the next two years) according to the World Economic Forum (WEF)’s Global Risks Report 2024, released on Wednesday ahead of the Annual Summit in Davos. The report highlighted extreme weather and critical change to Earth systems as the greatest long-term risks (over 10 years horizon). Infectious diseases, illicit economic activity, income inequality and labour shortage were the other five biggest short-term risks.

“Emerging as the most severe global risk anticipated over the next two years, foreign and domestic actors alike will leverage Misinformation and disinformation to further widen societal and political divides,” warned the report.

At a time when close to three billion people are expected to head to the electoral polls across several economies including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, the United Kingdom and the United States over the next two years, the widespread use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools to disseminate it, may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments. Resulting unrest could range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil confrontation and terrorism, said the report.

In response to mis- and disinformation, governments could be increasingly empowered to control information based on what they determine to be “true”. Freedoms relating to the Internet, press and access to wider sources of information that are already in decline risk descending into broader repression of information flow across a wider set of countries.

Over a 10-year horizon, environmental risks including biodiversity loss and critical change to the Earth's systems topped the rankings, with misinformation, disinformation and adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence (AI) just behind.

Meanwhile, two-thirds of risk experts surveyed expect a multipolar or fragmented world order to emerge in the next decade, "in which middle and great powers contest, set and enforce regional rules and norms", the survey said.

The report, produced in partnership with Zurich Insurance Group and Marsh McLennan, draws on the views of over 1,400 global risks experts, policy-makers and industry leaders surveyed in September 2023. Results highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world in the short term that is expected to worsen over the long term.

While 30 per cent of global experts expect an elevated chance of global catastrophes in the next two years, nearly two-thirds expect this in the next 10 years.