Under Ambiyanna's shadow, Winning Mandya no simple act'

Mandya, popularly known as the sugar bowl of South Karnataka, is all set to witness a high decibel fight between the strongest political family in Karnataka and the widow of one of the famed icons of the Kannada film industry. It has become a matter of prestige for former PM and Janata Dal (Secular) supremo H.D. Deve Gowda to win this seat at any cost as his grandson, Nikhil Kumaraswamy, son of Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy is all set to make his debut in politics. On the other hand, Sumalatha Ambareesh, widow of  ‘Mandyada Gandu’ late Ambareesh, has decided to contest from this prestigious constituency to fulfill the dreams of her late husband. Her entry into politics has definitely rattled the Deve Gowda family due to the large fan following of  Ambareesh across the constituency. Such an intense political fight was not witnessed even when actress Ramya aka Divya Spandana, currently head of the AICC Social Media Cell, contested from Mandya. SHYAM SUNDAR VATTAM explains why Mandya could be the most watched constituency in the coming Lok Sabha polls as the fallout of the result could impact Karnataka’s first political family.

A  Vokkaliga dominated district, Mandya has been a battleground for the Congress and JD(S) for several decades. Till the early 1980s, it was a stronghold of the Congress which won the maximum times in the last 17 Lok Sabha elections. However, the emergence of the Janata Parivar under the leadership of H.D. Deve Gowda changed the scenario and the Vokkaligas-once the vote bank of Congress- slowly tilted to the JD(S). For instance, the 2018 Assembly polls witnessed a landslide victory for the JD(S) which bagged all seven seats in the district with the Congress drawing a  blank.

Continuing its winning streak, the JD(S) won the Lok Sabha by-election held in November last year with L.R. Shivaramegowda, a joint candidate of the JD(S) and Congress, securing 5.67 lakh votes. But his rival, Dr. Siddaramaiah of the BJP too polled around 2.44 lakh votes indicating that the BJP has made inroads into Mandya district. In the 2014 LS polls, the party had got only around 80,000 votes.

“The surgical strike on Pakistan terror camps  post the Pulwama incident when 44 CRPF were martyred, has re-kindled patriotism among people and this may fetch us an additional one lakh votes. Given a chance, the lotus may bloom in Mandya”, asserted defeated BJP candidate, Dr Siddaramaiah.

Individuals count a lot more than political parties in this constituency. The Congress could have won a couple of seats in last year's Assembly polls had Ambareesh been treated properly by state leaders. In the name of ‘poor performance’, he was unceremoniously dropped from the state cabinet which upset him a lot.

For this reason, he not only refused to contest from Mandya city but also declined to campaign for the Congress leaving it a loser in all seven seats. The JD(S) has to be thankful to  Ambareesh for remaining neutral during the 2018 Assembly elections.

It’s Kumaranna Vs Ambiyanna: Much water has flowed down the Cauvery since 2018. The coming election could well be  between Kumaranna, as Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy is fondly known, and loyalists of Ambiyanna (Ambareesh).  Sumalatha is making all efforts to win this seat, heavily relying on the goodwill of her late husband. While the CM has the government and lakhs of foot soldiers on his side, Sumalatha has the support of friends, well-wishers and fans of Ambareesh.

That it is going to be a no holds barred battle is evident from the manner in which the JD(S) camp has started a war on social media questioning her entry into politics. An undeterred Sumalatha has already started a round of visits to all seven Assembly constituencies in the district and has completed one to one meetings with local Congress leaders seeking their support as a gesture of gratitude for her husband’s association with the party for over three decades. Her tearful speech recalling Ambareesh’s love and affection for Mandya has definitely impacted local people. The reception she is getting in villages seems to have caused much heartburn in the JD(S which has started a vilification campaign against her family. Already, two JD(S)

ministers- H.D. Revanna and  D.C. Thammanna have made personal attacks on Ambareesh’s family.

Not all is well in the JD(S) camp either. Many have questioned the need for making Nikhil the candidate when there are several other senior leaders in the party. Even sitting MP, L.R. Shivarame Gowda is said to be upset since he has been denied the ticket to accommodate the grandson of the party supremo. Another aspirant,  Lakshmi Ashwin Gowda, an IRS officer, who took voluntary retirement from service after Mr Kumaraswamy promised her the ticket in the Mandya LS by-election last year, is also annoyed at being ignored again.

The JD(S) is trying to bank on the popularity of  Nikhil among young voters thanks to his roles in two Kannada movies, the latest being ‘Sitarama Kalyana’, a big budget movie, being screened in many cinema halls across the state.

No sympathy wave: Dismissing reports of a sympathy wave in favour of Sumalatha Ambareesh, current MP L.R. Shivaramegowda told Deccan Chronicle that  JD(S) leaders  have worked out different strategies to woo the 17 lakh plus voters in the constituency. He said the CM has instructed all ministers, MLAs and MLCs to share the burden of the campaign by spending more time in public contact programmes and by highlighting the achievements of the coalition government in the last eight months.

Can the JD(S) repeat its phenomenal success in Mandya and send young Nikhil to parliament? Or are there hidden factors like the discontent among Congress workers of being forced to toil for a candidate of their avowed rival till recent months-JD(S)? Will Sumalatha with her charisma, backed by the larger than life image of Ambareesh and the silent backing of Congressmen swing the tide in her favour? It's a question which only the voters of Mandya can answer and right now, they are keeping their preference hidden below a camouflage of warmth and smiles which few can fathom.

According to sources, the JD(S) is not sure about the support of Congress leaders in Mandya who hardly campaigned for the JD(S) candidate in last year's by-election. Many defeated Congress candidates have left their Assembly constituencies leaving it to local JD(S) leaders to manage the show. This has happened despite an assurance by state Congress leaders of a joint campaign. Defeated Congress candidates like  N Cheluvarayaswamy, P.M. Narendra Swamy and Ramesh Bandi Siddegowda are said to be seething with anger against their own leaders for leaving the seat to their former rival, JD(S) as part of a pre-poll alliance. In this situation, the JD(S) would have to devise its own means to woo voters.

The Vokkaliga votes will be divided if Sumalatha Ambareesh,  Nikhil Kumaraswamy and Siddaramaiah contest. The actress was married to a towering Vokkaliga leader while the other two are Vokkaligas themselves. The votes of the scheduled castes/scheduled tribes, backward classes, other backward classes, minorities and Brahmins will therefore play a key role. While Nikhil will look to garner votes based on the performance of the coalition government,  Siddaramaiah will have to rely on the achievements and charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, For Sumalatha, the plus point will be the developmental works carried out by her late husband. There is also a possibility of the BJP not fielding its candidate and extending support to her in which case the JD(S) will have to contend with the charisma of the redoubtable S.M. Krishna, now in the BJP,who could throw his weight behind Sumalatha.