Will urban voters ditch festival of democracy again or celebrate it?

As the election campaign comes to an end in Telangana state, the biggest question on every voter, analyst and politician’s mind is: how successful will Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao be in achieving the goal he has publicly set for his party and voters — the goal of winning all 16 seats, leaving the 17th for his ally and MIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi. What, if any, are the fault lines in Mr Rao’s Mission Full-16 seats (F16)?

Vapid response from voters
When elections were fought in TS for the state Assembly a few months ago, it had the feel of a war. A repeat within 120 days is an insipid and tame affair, with urban voters who have a say in four Lok Sabha seats, responding in a predictably slackard manner (nope, don’t google it, we just coined the word combining ‘slack’ and ‘laggard’), despite the attempts by parties to bombard and awe voters with their messaging through all channels available.
The candidates aspiring to enter the portals of the Lower House of Parliament of the world’s largest democracy are trying to cover some huge constituencies, sweating it out in a summer that came early only to punish all political activities — with a problem whose irony is lost on none — they had a lot of money, but too little time.

Even the debates on social media did not feature Telangana state much. Most of the discussions on elections from the day the poll schedules were announced, hovered around, ‘Will Modi win?’, ‘How many seats will the Bhratiya Janata Party (BJP) lose in Hindi belt?’, ‘Has Rahul Gandhi erred in not building enough coalitions?’, ‘How many will SP-BSP bag in UP?’, ‘Will Congress touch and cross 100?’ and ‘Will it be a hung Parliament with a scope for a third front by any name?’.

Even amongst Telugu voters with less zeal for national elections, the discussions, fights, debates and bets are centred around Andhra Pradesh ‘Who will win: Naidu or Jagan?’, and ‘Will Pawan Kalyan make an impact?’
There was little doubt that the Telangana Rashtra Samiti will dominate in the elections on April 11, but whether its dominance would be complete was not a focus of analysis. Whenever voters show less than normal response, the tensions in those who feel a need to predict a winner rises; the risks are heightened because the error can be substantial.

Presidentialisation of LS Polls: Election Campaigns: Do we elect an MP or PM?

Just like Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made the elections all about electing the next PM, wherein the party symbol should override any local consideration or profile of the MP candidate, TRS chief Chandrasekhar Rao too has projected a presidential mandate. Internalising the BJP’s pitch nationally, Mr Rao has built the TRS narrative with usual political brilliance: give me 16 out of 16 so that we can have a say at the Centre.

The TRS reinvigorated its Federal Front idea, wherein both national parties would give dismal performances, and a non-BJP and non-Congress government was possible. Pushing the argument further, senior TRS leaders, including party working president K.T. Rama Rao, and ally Asaduddin Owaisi, gave the optics of how wonderful a Prime Minister Mr Rao would make.

National surveys project BJP a winner
Most national surveys, with a little deviation, project that the BJP will emerge victorious and that the current pre-poll National Democratic Alliance would get a slim majority, leaving little scope for a Federal Front. This dented the TRS’ fundamental argument in favour of F16.

While it does not hurt the party too much, the emotional surge the party hoped for, which would see Mr Rao as either PM or cobbling together a national alliance, is not there and so the focus goes back to individual seats and candidates. This is the primary reason there is no fervour in the voter response to the TRS’s call of Mission F16.

Appeal of Modi
The appeal of Mr Modi is undoubtedly at its weakest in South India, including the Telangana state, but in a national election, he overshadows Mr Rao as the Central figure of a discussion and tilts the voting decision for a large number. It is a factor Mr Rao and the TRS recognise well, having factored it in by conducting the Assembly elections early.

Most surveys or analyses substantiate this feeling: the Modi factor is strong, especially in urban pockets of the twin cities and with non-Andhra Pradesh migrant voters, irrespective of the strength of the party, presence of its cadre, or even the winning chances of their candidates.

Congress argument
The Grand Old Party is not leaving the contest easily. It is fighting hard in Telangana state to ensure elections become local, with a great focus on candidates and local issues, while managing to attack the TRS and BJP as being in cahoots.

Congress leaders led by Pradesh Congress Committee president Capt Uttam Kumar Reddy, the Nalgonda candidate, argue that there is enough anti-incumbency and factors like disdain for autocratic leaders, weakening of democratic institutions, going after the Opposition, and its own new deal of Minimum Income Guarantee, to create a wave of revival in its favour.

“A Chief Minister who after winning 88 seats does not care to form a full-fledged Cabinet for two months, instead using money and threats to lure the opposition, has not endeared himself to the people. The defeat of TRS in the MLC elections is an early sign of voters understanding, especially the educated voters and unemployed youth, how TRS has betrayed its promises,” Uttam Kumar Reddy says.

Congress leaders estimate that their party will stop the TRS car on its onward journey to Delhi by winning between five and seven seats.

Nothing has changed since December 7

The TRS believes its appeal for maximum seats will work because nothing has weakened the bond between Mr Rao and voters of Telangana state since they voted him back to power in the state with 88 out of 119 seats on December 7 last year. Two senior leaders in the TRS told me that the subsequent migration of Congress MLAs to the ruling party has further weakened the opposition and the TRS will romp home.

The pink party has a clear edge in campaign narrative, money, and cadre enthusiasm. It is banking on four factors to emerge victorious — KCR, KCR and KCR, and KTR.

Urban Voters
Telangana state is a highly urban state, and the metropolitan area of Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation spans or covers parts of four Lok Sabha constituencies. Urban voters in Hyderabad have traditionally voted in low numbers, often just a little over a half 50 per cent, despite repeated campaigns to improve voting percentage.

Urban apathy towards voting also explains why  election fever has not made itself felt despite candidates resorting to strong social media campaigns, antics like flash mob dances, taking trips in Metro rail, besides road shows and campaigns across radio, TV and newspapers.

The urban voter usually sees a national election as an affair between national parties, and despite the growth of the TRS in the twin cities after the 2014 drubbing here, it may still not be their first choice.

However, unlike last time, the natural preferences of the people of Hyderabad — the Telugu Desam (TD) and BJP — are not in partnership any more. The TD not contesting and giving tacit support to the Congress, may work for the beleaguered Grand Old Party. The TRS, by taking sides in the Andhra Pradesh elections, has smartly endeared itself to the YSR Congress followers in the huge ‘settler’ population, even as TD fans back the Congress.

The second thing the TRS will work for strongly is the split of national party oriented voters between the BJP and Congress. If BJP candidates get lots of votes, the TRS hopes it will romp home.

Let us look at the individual seats where Congress and BJP feel they have a chance to inflict defeat on the TRS.

Secunderabad
This is a favourite seat of the BJP and the only one where it still stands a chance of winning. Despite the lacklustre performance of former Union minister and sitting MP Bandaru Dattatreya, the voters here have a sense that in BJP candidate G. Kishan Reddy they might have a future member of the Union Cabinet if the BJP-led NDA forms the government.

Despite losing his Assembly seat in Amberpet, Mr Reddy is leading a passionate campaign, backed by ground cadre. The success of the Modi rally is also, argue BJP supporters, a shot in the arm.

The Congress has old warhorse Anjan Kumar Yadav, who lost the last time but has represented the constituency in the past and has his traditional strongholds. But the fight spread across the seven Assembly divisions of Amberpet, Jubilee Hills, Khairatabad, Musheerabad, Nampally, Sanathnagar and Secunderabad looks primarily between the TRS candidate Talasani Saikiran Yadav, a newbie, and son of Talasani Yadav said the BJP.

Malkajgiri
The largest Lok Sabha constituency in the country is a nightmare for any candidate. Spanning Medchal, Malkajgiri, Qutbullapur, Kukatpally, Uppal, LB Nagar and Cantonment, it has over 34 lakh voters. The TRS has another young debutant, Marri Rajashekar Reddy, son-in-law of sitting MP Ch Malla Reddy, who has since moved to the pink party and is a minister in the state government.
The constituency has a large population which has a natural propensity for the TD and BJP, which had made Malla Reddy’s victory possible, but the TRS has become stronger since then.

The factor at work for the debutant is the network of educational institutions owned by his family, whose students and teachers have been put to work on the election campaign from the start. The top leadership of the TRS, including Mr Rao, have put a lot of effort into backing the candidate.

However, A. Revanth Reddy of the Congress, still licking his wounds from the defeat in the Assembly polls, is a natural crowd puller. He is putting up a strong fight and he has an outside chance of challenging his natural adversary, the TRS, and taking revenge. He must be counting on a large number of people who would not support the Congress, voting instead for the BJP, especially because the BJP candidate N. Ramchander Rao is well liked, and in that split, emerging the winner.

chevella
It is battle royale in the paradigm constituency 0ù one which has Bharat, which spans across India, even New India, with a Hindustan in between. Spread across Chevella, Maheswaram, Pargi, Rajendranagar, Serilingampally, Tandur and Vikarabad, this constituency’s sitting MP Konda Vishweshwar Reddy is enormously popular and the Congress chosen candidate this time too.
In rural areas, his family background — his grandfather is Konda Venkata Ranga Reddy after whom Ranga Reddy district was named — helps him against a poultry businessman, a debutant contesting his first election, and an outsider from Warangal.

In urban areas, Vishweshwar Reddy’s profile as an inventor with US patents, having served as CEO of group companies of Wipro and GE, stands him in good stead, though many voters residing in Serilingampally and Rajendranagar either don’t vote, or naturally prefer the BJP or the TD as first choice.

But his campaign, led by his popular wife Sangita Reddy, joint managing director of Apollo Hospitals, has put him ahead in the race against a largely unknown candidate, who hopes his party’s appeal and the charisma of Mr Rao wins him the race.

Nalgonda
As leader of the Congress state unit, Capt Uttam Kumar is now one of the most recognised faces of the party and had won despite the TRS wave. He is the only Congress leader who benefits from the Balakot strike of the BJP, having served in the Indian Air Force and having piloted MiG-21s and MiG-23s. He has rallied the cadre and is putting up a winner’s campaign.

The TRS candidate, businessman turned politico, Vemireddy Narsimha Reddy, is counting on his party and leader, rather than his own profile, to counter his rival.

Bhongir
Komatireddy Venkat Reddy, the Congress candidate, who represented the constituency in 2009 but lost in 2014 by a small margin of 30,000 votes, is facing-off against a familiar rival, Boora Naraiah Goud of the CPI. The communists have traditionally been strong in this constituency, a factor the TRS hopes will work to its advantage by splitting the vote against it. Mr Komatireddy is a rich candidate with a strong cadre and is seen as a strong contender who can pull off an otherwise improbable victory.

Khammam
If the results of the Assembly elections and the subsequent efforts of the TRS to get opposition MLAs join it betrays the nervousness of the party, and its disappointment at its own performance and lack of strength, the manner of giving a ticket to Nama Nageswara Rao a minute after he joined the party, shows its desperation to win. However, in a constituency where the TRS is traditionally weak, the Congress has fielded the feisty Renuka Chowdhury. With traditional voters of the TD backing her, she can bust the pink car with her charismatic appeal and oratory against a fellow Kamma who has just jumped ship.

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