Straight bat: Voters beware, surveys are risky

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Less than two months to the assembly polls, pollsters are bracing for their seasonal overkill, notwithstanding risks associated with the exercise. Falling short on accuracy levels and getting trends wrong can lead to poll-bashing.

But opinion and exit polls have come to stay because of the relative accuracy with which local pollsters had predicted the outcome. They have been more fortunate than their counterparts in the UK, for instance, where the pollsters were not able judge the huge voter sentiment in favour of the Conservatives in 2015 that gave David Cameron a sweep over the Labour.

The majority of polls taken during the five-week election campaign suggested that Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives and Ed Miliband's Labour were heading a virtual dead heat. Which it was not. Back home, the 2011 Assembly and 2014 Lok Sabha surveys in the State gauged the trends correctly though there was some let-up in accuracy on the seats tally.

Pollsters usually have a tough time doing pre-poll surveys and exit polls in central Travancore as respondents there are wary of disclosing their electoral preferences and opinions unlike their counterparts in northern and southern districts. Perhaps a separate survey will unravel reasons for the inscrutable behavior of central Travancoreans, which could either be a distrust of the survey or respondents being self-selective on the extent of disclosure.

Associate professor K M Sajad Ibrahim at the Kerala University Department of Political Science and others engaged in surveys call it the right of interviewees what to say and what to withhold. Scientific surveys factor in such responses, too.

Already, two opinion polls in Kerala this time have given an edge to the Opposition LDF. But given the history of the pollsters’ hits and misses, it would be prudent for those conducting surveys to be as transparent as possible on the methodology adopted.       

Dr Sajad Ibrahim says there is a marked difference between market and academic surveys. Scientific random sampling, ensuring proper representation to all sections of voters spread over the social mosaic and error-free data collection are key elements of the survey. Collating and interpreting data calls for greater expertise.

Surveys by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies-Lokniti follow a rigorous regimen of cross-verification and elaborate questionnaire but the respondent base is restricted to an optimum number to prevent complications attached to mining data  from an unmanageable respondent base.    

Whatever be the risks and pitfalls, the call for a blanket ban on opinion polls in some quarters does not reflect the voter mood or the craving for trends in the run-up to the elections.

The Election Commission has banned the publishing or telecast of exit poll results till the last phase of elections is over. This is meant to check results influencing voters. But the Commission has not banned pre-election opinion polls, leaving the voter to judge the exercise with discretion.