CM will scrape through... Coalition looms

Bengaluru: Top level sources tracking developments in poll-bound Karnataka have told Deccan Chronicle that a pre-poll arrangement between the JD(S) and the BJP that would have seen the parties not field strong candidates against each other has fallen through. They also said that while the chief minister's camp can take comfort in Chief Minister Siddaramaiah scraping through in Chamundeshwari, it remains wary of the BJP executing an Operation Goa, where even if it comes in as the single largest party, the BJP and JD(S) could hammer together a coalition a la 2006. 

"The JD(S) will be the game-changer post-poll but right now, it is sitting on the fence, undecided on whom to back," the source said, adding that the JD(S) will take a call on which party to support on May 15. 

The party’s decision will rest upon a lot of factors such as the ‘immediacy and need’ and ‘offer’ on hand. “The JD(S) is in a bind because they cannot openly support the BJP since it may harm the party’s secular credentials and sour its relations with its UP ally – the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). They may support the Congress but it will be a last minute decision, based on the requirement from either sides," the source said.

These sources maintain that in a tightly contested three cornered Assembly elections neither of the two major stake holders – Congress and the BJP is likely to get an absolute majority on May 15. 

The Congress is likely to get between 95 and 100 seats and the BJP may get 70 to 80 seats.

The game-changer is likely to be “Prime Minister Modi who will definitely boost the saffron party’s numbers but not to the extent of getting the party an absolute majority. The BJP knows it,” said sources, who didn’t wish to be named who stated that the JD(S) had reached out to the BJP and had been rebuffed when its demands could not be met.

The Congress fears that even if it comes in as the single largest party, the BJP will repeat the 2017 Goa and Manipur formula and form the government, despite not having a majority. Further, it could agree to go with the JD(S) and appoint H.D, Kumaraswamy as the CM of the coalition to stop the Congress from forming the government.

"The Congress and the BJP have reserved huge amounts of funds for the last minute ‘trade’ of MLAs,” sources said.

According to Intelligence sources, the incumbent chief minister Siddaramaiah will most likely win the Chamundeshwari seat in which he is pitted against his friend turned political rival and JD(S) MLA G.T. Devegowda.  In Karnataka, no party since 1985 has retained power for a second consecutive term and no chief minister has returned to power after a full five-year term since Devaraj Urs in 1978. “In these elections if the Congress comes close to the winning mark, then Siddaramaiah will emerge as a strong regional satrap. But if the BJP manages to do a Goa it will be the end of the road for the Congress in 2019,” he said.