It’s advantage YS Jagan Mohan Reddy: Pollsters

Vijayawada: A majority of the Telugu states-based survey agencies in their exit polls have predicted that the Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy led YSR Congress will trounce the Telugu Desam and form the next government with a landslide victory.

They also projected a huge vote share difference between the two parties. Most of the surveys also projected that actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan will put up a dismal show in the polls by bagging single digit numbers.

The Hyderabad-based Centre for Psephology Studies (CPS) which had predicted a win for the Telangana Rashtra Samiti in Telangana’s Assembly elections in December, has projected that the YSRC will register a resounding victory in the Assembly elections in AP with around 130 to 135 seats.

The TD is likely to bag 37-40 seats while Jana Sena will bag 1. CPS has also put the vote share of the YSRC at 50.1 per cent, the TD at 40.2 per cent and the Jana Sena at 7.3 per cent.

Recently, CPS predicted 88 to 90 seats for the TRS in Telangana Assembly elections and the TRS got 88 seats. In the GHMC elections, it predicted 98 to 100 for the TRS, and the TRS got 99 seats. It predicted a clear victory for TRS in Narayakhed and Palair by-elections. In the past, when it had predicted 159 seats for the Congress, the Congress got 156 seats in the 2009 election. It gave accurate results in the 2014 elections as well.

In all by-elections CPS predicted all the results correctly.

As per the exit poll survey conducted by I-News Network and i-Pulse, the YSRC will end up getting 110-120 seats, the Telugu Desam 55-62, the Jana Sena 0-3. Regarding vote share, the YSRC is projected to get 44.1 per cent, while TD 40.4 per cent and Jana Sena 10.3 per cent.

The survey by i-Pulse is app based and done at randomly selected polling booths across all the mandals of 175 constituencies. The survey agency collected data from more than 50,000 voters all across 175 Assembly constituencies in a day, which marks a record for AP exit polls.

It employed 1,000 skilled and experienced data collectors to collect the samples in all the 175 Assembly segments and  ensured quality of data through closely-monitored GeoTag for surveyors and by a rigorous supervisory mechanism.

“Given the mandate of voters in the 26 closely fought seats, YSRC is projected to get 67-70 per cent of the 26 seats. This translates overall to roughly between 110 to 120 seats. Using the same methodology/calculation, when applied to the TD, at 32.9 per cent of 26 seats, it is expected to get 52 to 62 seats. The Jana Sena is expected to get 0-3 seats, among closely fought seats of 26,” said an i-Pulse representative.

He added that the TD has not openly aligned with any national or regional like-minded parties in the state for the first time since its inception and this decision may have affected its winning chances.  “Well-organised electioneering and resource management gave the YSRC the edge. Open caste divisions also played a crucial role in defining winning chances. Clear division among women voters, favouring YSRC, especially lower and lower-middle class women (sic). At the same time, a majority of beneficiaries receiving old age pensions preferred to vote for the TD,” said the i-Pulse representative.