Pre-poll surveys: A hope for NDA

Hyderabad: It may be a tad early for the Congress to celebrate its success in the Hindi heartland. Surverys put out by two TV channels on Monday suggested a good show by the BJP-led NDA in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls.  According to a survey, NDA is likely to win 247 seats, while UPA may get 171 seats.

But NDA may face trouble in Uttar Pradesh, as Mayawati-led BSP and Akhilesh Singh-led SP have joined hands. Moreover, two channels have put out identical seats for the BJP-led NDA in Bihar.

According to CVoter, if the elections were held in December and the SP-BSP-RLD were in alliance, the NDA would get a vote share of 42.8 per cent and 28 seats (BJP 27, Apna Dal 1) out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh. The SP-BSP-RLD grouping get 44.3 per cent of the vote and 50 seats.  The Congress would end up with 7.3 per cent votes and two seats.

In 2014, the BJP had bagged 73 seats in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress two. The BSP was wiped out, and the SP won five.

According to a series of pre-poll surveys by ABP News, BSP and SP contest separately, the NDA could win 72 seats while the Congress and the BSP may get just two seats each and the SP four.

In Bihar both surveys predicted a sweep for the NDA alliance. ABP News and CVoter gave the alliance 35 out of 40 seats. The Congress-led UPA, which includes the Congress, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD, Manjhi’s HAM and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP was projected to get five seats.

The BJP-led alliance will perform better than in 2014, the surveys said. The BJP won 22 seats while its allies the LJP and the RLSP won six and three respectively in Bihar.

Maharashtra, which is the second largest state after UP with 48 seats, will be a key state in case of a hung verdict. The UPA, which suffered a massive defeat in 2014, is likely to win 30 seats, leaving the BJP with just 16, both surveys said. The BJP ever-disgruntled ally Shiv Sena may also lose big time. The party, which won 18 seats in 2014 is projected to win two.

For the other states, CVoter predicted a huge change in Odisha, which will also see Assembly polls next year. There is likely to be a huge change in terms of both vote share and seat share as compared to 2014, with BJP projected to win 15 seats, leaving the BJD with just six and Congress empty handed. In 2014, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik’s BJP won 20 of the 21 seats with a vote share of 44.1 per cent.

Out of the 25 seats in Rajasthan, CVoter gave the NDA 19 seats and the Congress six seats. This indicates that the Congress’ good performance in recent Assembly elections may not reflect in the general elections.

CVoter projected a tough fight between Congress and BJP in Karnataka, which has 28 seats. Despite a better vote share (47.6 per cent), the UPA is expected to win 13 seats (10 Congress and JD(S) three), two less than the BJP, despite them having a vote share of 42.3 per cent. ABP News said in Gujarat, NDA is likely to win 26 seats, while UPA may get just two seats.