Chengannur bypoll: Communal undercurrents hold key

ALAPPUZHA: With Chengannur bracing for the polling on   Monday, the political fronts  have been playing the communal card to ensure a victory.  The situation has changed in the constituency since 2016 when LDF’s K.K. Ramachandran Nair defeated UDF’s P.C.  Vishnunath. The LDF’s traditional vote base  is the Ezhava--  SC/ST combine and a cross section of lower stream Nairs  while the UDF enjoys the support of  a large chunk of Christian and Nair voters.

If the BJP secures over 40,000 votes and the LDF retains its 42 percent vote share, it could shatter the UDF’s hopes.   If  the  BJP’s vote share declines  and the UDF  woos  back the  Hindu votes  it  lost in 2016,  the latter   would gain. Either way, the communal undercurrents hold  the key. The major Hindu communities,  including the SNDP Yogam and the NSS, have kept their options open so as not to displease any front. 

The NDA is  struggling to  retain  its vote share of last time  due to the absence of BDJS from the campaign scene.   However,  NDA candidate  P.S. Sreedh-aran Pillai hopes that the front will improve its performance like in 2016  when it surprised everyone with 42, 682 votes compared to  6,000 in 2011.  Though the NDA has proposed a slew of development activities  in  Chengannur, it remains to be seen  whether BJP would be able to attract the traditional voters of the rival fronts.  

According to the Election Commission, the number of voters in Chengannur  this time is  1,99,340,  including 5,039 new voters.  Fifty percent of the voters are Nairs (24 percent) and Christian (26 percent).  Traditionally, the  majority of Nairs and Christians,  especially the Orthodox Church,  have supported the UDF candidate, giving an upper hand to the UDF in most of the  elections previously.    This time,  20 percent Ezhava votes and 13 percent SC/ST votes would be crucial for all fronts.

The LDF is looking for a crack in Christian  votes,  especially of  the Orthodox Church, which has an upper hand in the constituency. The LDF has brought to its fold former Congress leader and three-time MLA  Shobhana George hoping that she could make a swing among Orthodox Christians in favour of  Mr Saji Cherian. Last time,  she had contested as an independent and secured  3, 966 votes. Ms  C.S. Sujatha, LDF candidate in 2011,   secured 52,656 votes,  and  K.K. Ramachandran Nair got 52,880 votes in 2016.  Both belonged to the Nair community and retained  their 42 percent vote share.

The  UDF vote share came down from 51.98 percent  in 2011 (65, 156) to 30.89 percent in 2016 (44,897)  when Mr  P.C. Vishunath, a Nair, was the candidate.  A  BDJS source  said  the NDA had managed to get  some traditional  UDF and LDF votes last time.  The LDF gained many   minority votes which were traditionally with the UDF and retained its  vote share on  both the occasions.  “The  BJP also benefited as the BDJS campaigned actively for it.  But this time, the BDJS is keeping off which will hurt the NDA candidate. 

For example,  the BJP had got   5,060 Ezhava votes  from  Chennithala panchayat last time.  But this figure would come down by 2000 now.  We can’t predict where these votes will go,” a  source said.  The UDF camp believes that the support extended by Kerala Congress (M) chairman  K.M. Mani will boost its prospects. Though the Church has not declared its stand, the KCBC followers have been campaigning in the constituency against the government’s liquor policy.