Vote shares reflect a different chemistry in Tamil Nadu NDA

Chennai: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under Mr. Narendra Modi was a formidable vote-catcher in the Hindi-speaking belt and other states from Gujarat to the Northeast in the just concluded Lok Sabha (LS) elections, breaking traditional caste divides. But the chemistry of the AIADMK-led NDA for the 39 LS seats in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry was just the opposite.

Contrary to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when the ruling AIADMK under Ms Jayalalithaa's leadership went it alone, in the 2019 elections, the BJP had won a major partner in the AIADMK that led the NDA here this time. And the alliance looked solid with allies like the PMK, actor Vijayakanth-led DMDK, a key Dalit party, Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) headed by Dr K Krishnaswamy, New Justice Party (NJP) of A C Shanmugham and G K Vasan-led Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC).

Yet, with the DMK-Congress combine sweeping the LS polls in Tamil Nadu taking 37 of the 38 seats, logging a combined vote-share of 52.64 per cent, the AIADMK-BJP led NDA could net only 30.28 per cent of votes polled.

From an euphoric 44.92 per cent vote share in 2014 and winning record 37 LS seats, AIADMK's vote share nosedived to 18.48 per cent contesting 20 seats as part of NDA in 2019. The BJP which had sewn a different NDA in 2014 and had then won a seat (Kanniyakumari) with a vote-share of 5.56 per cent, saw a drop of nearly two percentage points in 2019 to 3.66 per cent. While the PMK has managed to retain its five per cent plus vote-share, the DMDK saw a sharp decline from 5.19 per cent in 2014 to 2.19 per cent in 2019, with de-recognition staring it.

On the contrary, the DMK's vote-share has jumped from 23.91 per cent in 2014 to 32.76 per cent individually now, and Congress almost tripled its vote-share from 4.37 per cent in 2014 to 12.76 per cent in 2019. Also, CPI and CPI(M) have regained lost ground now at 2.43 per cent and 2.40 per cent respectively, aided by smaller allies like MDMK, Thol Thirumavalavan-led Viduthalai Chiruthaikal Katchi (VCK) and Kongunadu Desiya Makkal Katchi (KDMK).

Though the two poll scenarios are not strictly comparable item-by-item, what these numbers do suggest is that there was no seamless vote transfer in the state NDA this time. Apart from AIADMK's declining show in the post-Jayalalithaa political context, the OBC Vanniyars-based PMK's presence in the alliance has not helped either of them. Nor have 'Mukkulathor' votes en bloc transferred to the BJP in the southern constituencies. More Dalit votes went to DMK-Congress front.

In fact, in several Lok Sabha constituencies in north and west Tamil Nadu, the OBC 'Vanniyar' votes seem to have shifted to the DMK-Congress-led alliance, helping even the VCK in a tough seat like Chidambaram for the Dalit leader Thol Thirumavalavan.  And the KDMK's presence in the DMK alliance, combined with a huge anti-incumbency the BJP faced in seats like Tirupur, has seen a significant shift in the 'Goundar' votes too, a traditional AIADMK vote-bank.  

The figures also show that the alliance chemistry was more mutually binding among allies in the DMK-Congress combine, accounting for the big victory margins. From the perception of the alliance - AIADMK joining hands with its bitter foe PMK did not go down well from day one- to the profile of individual candidates several factors have contributed to this change in chemistry.

In Dharmapuri for instance, sitting PMK MP Dr Anbumani Ramadoss, had little help from the formidable NDA. He lost to the DMK candidate S Senthil Kumar, who had an edge hailing from the noted 'DMV family' of entrepreneurs and whose grandfather enjoys an iconic status as one responsible for carving out Dharmapuri district from erstwhile composite Salem district.  Another factor that went against the PMK was its leadership sidelining the family of Kaduvetti Guru, late president of Vanniyar Sangam, the social backbone of the PMK.