Economic Survey 2018: GDP to grow 7-7.5% in 2018-19; oil prices big concern

New Delhi: The Economic Survey 2017-18 on Monday forecast economic growth to accelerate in 2018-19 to touch up to 7.5 percent “reinstating India as the world’s fastest growing major economy”.

This pick-up in the growth will be led by buoyancy in exports as global economy accelerates and there is a rebound in the private investment at the domestic front. “A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 per cent this fiscal (year) and will rise to 7.0 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, thereby reinstating India as the world’s fastest growing major economy,” said the survey tabled in Parliament by finance minister Arun Jaitley.

The survey said that Central Statistics Office erred by pegging India’s growth at a four-year low of 6.5 per cent in 2017-18 (CSO data is used as the main input while compiling various financial targets in Union Budget).

“This estimate has not fully factored in the latest developments in the third quarter, especially the greater-than-CSO forecast exports and government contributions to demand,” it said. The survey said that the GDP growth for 2017-18 as a whole is expected to be close to 6.75 per cent.

The survey cautioned that high oil prices remained a key risk for a country that relies on imports for much of its fuel needs. “They would affect inflation, current account, fiscal position and growth, and force macroeconomic policies to be tighter than otherwise,” said the Survey.