BJP vs Them: Regional parties stop BJP rath, Congress cashes in too

New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party won two of the four Lok Sabha bypolls on Thursday but lost its most prestigious fight in Uttar Pradesh by a cruel margin.

The Congress and regional parties decimated the BJP in state bypolls with the national party picking up four seats and regional satraps six. The BJP retained one in Uttarakhand. 

The results indicate that a larger Opposition alliance can challenge the ruling BJP in 2019.

The ascendance of regional parties in these elections will also be a challenge for the Congress -- to get the arithmetic right on whether it can be the glue to a combined Opposition alliance or whether it should cede leadership to dominant regional partners in states.

But the most important question remains: Prime Minister Narendra Modi vs Who?

In the 4 Lok Sabha seats that were counted today, the BJP lost Kairana in Uttar Pradesh to a united Opposition candidate from the Rashtriya Lok Dal. 

BJP won Maharashtra's Lok Sabha seat Palghar but lost Bhandara-Gondia to the NCP-Congress combine. BJP ally NDPP won the lone Nagaland seat.

Here is a lowdown of they whys and wherefores of these elections, and what bearing the outcomes may have on the 2019 general elections.

Lok Sabha seats: 

Kairana, Uttar Pradesh: BJP has lost this big prestige battle to the Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, an influential regional party in the Jat-dominated western Uttar Pradesh. The RLD was the face of a united opposition in Uttar Pradesh, which is helmed by the Samjawadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. The SP had openly supported RLD candidate Tabassum Hasan in the campaign to the bypoll. Hasan also claimed she had the support of Bahujan Samaj party, though party boss Mayawati made no formal announcement of this.

This is the third straight Lok Sabha loss for the BJP in UP, after Gorakhpur and Phulpur, held respectively by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya. They vacated those seats to front the state Cabinet after BJP’s spectacular win in the last Assembly elections, a few months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's controversial demonetisation drive. The regional coalition’s win here tests the waters or even may set the template for a national anti-BJP coalition in 2019.

Read: Stunning upset for BJP in UP, loses Kairana Lok Sabha, Noorpur assembly seats

In the last election, the BJP’s vote share in Kairana was more than the combined vote share of all Opposition. The mandate dumped the communal narrative as a Muslim candidate won here with a nearly 50,000-vote margin.

The coming together of Muslims, OBCs and Dalits and the woes of the sugarcane farmers tilted the mandate in favour of the Opposition in Kairana.

Polls were necessitated in Kairana because of the death of BJP MP Hukum Singh. The party has fielded his daughter Mriganka Singh and the Opposition RLD’s Tabassum Hasan, supported by the Congress, BSP and SP.

Result: RLD wins. 

Bhandara-Gondia and Palghar, Maharashtra: The fight in Palghar was between the BJP and the Shiv Sena, with the Shiv Sena hoping to find feet after rebelling against big brother BJP. In Bhandara-Gondia, the BJP was up against the coalition of the Nationalist Congress Party and the Congress. NCP chief Sharad Pawar has already indicated he is willing to go with the Congress in 2019.

Also Read: In Maharashtra, BJP loses 1 Lok Sabha seat, retains another

Palghar: Polls were held because of the death of sitting BJP MP Chintaman Wanaga. The BJP did not like it when the Shiv Sena fielded his son Shrinivas. BJP nominated former Congress leader Rajendra Gavit. The Congress fielded former MP Damu Shingda. A BJP win in Palghar seals rebel ally Shiv Sena's aspirations of going it alone in 2019.

Bhandara-Gondia: BJP sitting MP Nana Patole quit the party and rejoined his alma mater Congress in February, thereby necessitating re-elections here. The seat was earlier held by NCP’s Praful Patel who had lost to Patole in 2014. Patole did not fight the elections this time but threw his might behind Congress-NCP candidate Madhukar Kukde who took on BJP’s Hemant Patle. 

Result: BJP wins Palghar. NCP wins Bhandara-Gondia.

Lone seat in Nagaland: Bypoll is taking place here because of the resignation of present Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio to contest the Assembly polls. The ruling People's Democratic Alliance in Nagaland has fielded former minister Tokheho Yepthomi. Yepthomi faces opposition Naga People's Front candidate C Apok Jamir.

Also Read: BJP ally NDPP wins Nagaland Lok Sabha seat in bypoll

Result: BJP ally NDPP wins.

Assembly seats: Seats up for grabs are Maharashtra's Palus Kadegaon, Uttar Prades's Noorpur, Bihar's Jokihat, Jharkhand's Gomia and Silli, Kerala's Chengannur, Meghalaya's Ampati, Punjab's Shahkot, Uttarakhand's Tharali and West Bengal's Maheshtala. And, general election to Karnataka's Rajarajeshwari Nagar.

Rajarajeshwari Nagar, Karnataka: This is not a bypoll but an election. Polls here were rescheduled after 9,567 electoral photo identity cards were retrieved from a flat in Jalahalli just 3 days before the Karnataka Assembly elections on May 13. The fight here was between the BJP, the Congress and the JD(S) despite the latter two being in a post-poll coalition at the Vidhana Sauda. The Congress is winning this seat and this takes their state tally to 79 MLAs.

Also Read: Cong retains Rajarajeshwari Nagar seat where it contested against ally JD(S)

Result: Congress wins.

Noorpur, Uttar Pradesh: 'United we stand, divided we fall,' is the message that the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party sent out to states when they came together to defeat the BJP in Gorakhpur and Phulpur in Uttar Pradesh. That mission worked this time too in Uttar Pradesh, in Kairana and Noorpur.

Elections were held here after sitting BJP MLA Lokendra Singh died in a road accident in February. His daughter Avani Singh fronted the BJP’s fight. Her opposition was SP candidate Naimul Hasan, supported also by the RLD. The BSP sat this one out, and is understood to have supported this coalition though there was no official announcement from party chief Mayawati on this either.

Result: Samajwadi Party wins.

Maheshtala, West Bengal: The death of Trinamool Congress sitting MLA Kasturi Das has necessitated re-elections here. The TMC fielded her husband Dulal Das, the BJP put forward former CBI joint director Sujit Ghosh. The BJP in the last Assembly polls and in the recently-concluded and the extremely bloody Panchayat elections has emerged as the Trinamool’s main contender. BJP, however, lost very badly here with Ghosh getting 62,896 votes to Das' 104,818. 

Also Read: TMC’s Dulas Das wins Maheshtala assembly bypoll in Bengal by 62,827 votes

  Result: Trinamool Congress wins.

Chengannur, Kerala: BJP has bulldozed its way into Kerala’s bipolar politics and the fight here this time was triangular – between the LDF, UDF and the BJP. The seat went for re-election after the death in January of CPI(M)’s MLA K K Ramachandran. 

But numbers show that the BJP’s votes have fallen in Chengannur in 2018.

Also Read: CPI(M) led ruling LDF retains Chengannur seat in Kerala

In 2016, CPI(M)’s K K Ramachandran Nair got 52,880 votes, Congress’ P C Vishnunath got 44,897 and BJP’s P S Sreedharan Pillai bagged 42,682. The winning margin was 7,983 votes.

In these elections, CPI(M)’s Saji Cherian has 67,729 votes, Congress’ Vijayakumar got 44,814 and BJP’s P S Sreedharan Pillai 33,705. The winning margin was 19,219.

Result: CPI(M) wins.

Jokihat, Bihar: The fight here was between the ruling JD(U) – an NDA partner – and the RJD. March saw three bypolls in the state, 2 Assembly and one Lok Sabha (Araria). The BJP and the RJD got an Assembly seat each but the RJD snatched Araria from the ruling party. Jokihat will be another test for the BJP as a loss here would boost the RJD’s confidence, particularly after BJP broke the mahagathbandhan to engineer its own government.

A loss in this east Bihar city shows BJP partner and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has lost much of his political capital after he quit the RJD-JD(U) mahagathbandhan that had won the Bihar mandate in 2015.

Also Read: Setback for Nitish Kumar as RJD wrests Bihar’s Jokihat seat from JD(U)

Soon after Nitish Kumar decided to go back to the NDA fold – he left before the 2014 national elections after Narendra Modi was projected as Prime Minister – Jokihat lawmaker Sarfraz Alam left the JD(U) and joined RJD. He also won the Araria Lok Sabha seat for the RJD. In Jokihat, the RJD fielded his brother Shahnawaz.

JD(U) candidate Murshid Alam allegedly has seven criminal cases against him, including one of gangrape.

Result: RJD wins.

Shahkot, Punjab: Polls were held here due to the death of Akali MLA Ajit Singh Kohar in February. The ruling Congress, AAP and the Shiromani Akali Dal were in the fray but Congress was tipped to win, taking forward the momentum it gained in the Assembly elections. SAD fielded Kohar’s son Naib Singh, the SAD Hardev Singh Laddi and the AAP Rattan Singh Kakkar Kalan. The Congress always had the edge, having wrested the state from the BJP-SAD combo in the last Assembly elections.

Result: Congress wins.

Silli and Gomia, Jharkhand: AJSU chief Sudesh Mahato and JMM candidate Seema Mahto are clashing in Silli while Gomia sees a triangular fight between the BJP, ally AJSU and the JMM.

Also Read: Alarm bell for ruling BJP: JMM retains both assembly seats in Jharkhand by-elections

Result: JMM wins both.

Ampati, Meghalaya: Congress candidate and daughter of former chief minister Mukul Sangma has won the Ampati seat by defeating the ruling combination’s nominee. The Congress’ tally in the state is 21 and it is now the single largest party in Meghalaya.

Result: Congress wins.

Tharali, Uttarakhand: It is a bipolar fight here between the BJP and the Congress.

Result: BJP wins.

Palus Kadegaon, Maharashtra: The result here was a mere formality for the Congress’ Vishwajeet Kadam as the BJP withdrew its nominee at the last minute. Vishwajeet is the son of sitting Congress MLA and former minister Patangrao Kadam, whose death necessitated the polls. It was game over for the BJP early in May when Shiv Sena announced its support for Kadam.

Result: Congress wins.