Cyclone Ockhi: Low-tech forecasting back in focus

ALAPPUZHA: After Cyclone Ockhi leaving a trail of destruction, the need for low-tech weather forecasting is back in focus. With Radio Monsoon, Malayali researchers at the University of Sussex, the UK, had such an initiative in coastal Thiruvananthapuram in 2014. However, it failed to garner support. Maximilian Martin, a research associate at School of Global Studies, Sussex, who led the team, said in an e-mail interaction that the climate-related hazards assert the need for the last mile communication vehicle.

"The government has enough expertise and resources to implement such measures. Radio Monsoon was a model. It gave a few communication options to government agencies and local communities. What I understand in my recent interactions with stakeholders is that those lessons Radio Monsoon provide are taken seriously. Hopefully, the recent development will encourage more effective risk communication initiatives," he said.

It was providing daily weather bulletins to 30,000 seagoing families. The team is now planning to expand the technology after monitoring its impact on fatalities and the current search and rescue operations.  It was Mr Martin who first conceived the idea with his friends after the 2004 tsunami. In these days, he adds,  fishers often go deep into the sea on small boats, canoes and catamarans as the fish stock is depleting in the coastal waters due to overfishing and climate changes.

"They often have powerful outboard engines, but no navigational aid, safety devices or marine weather advisories. This risk-taking culture makes fishing even more dangerous. So it’s crucial for the government agencies to think of weather forecasting mechanisms like Radio Monsoon," he said. He feels India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) think seriously about forecast accuracy, relevance and acceptance, besides the risk culture and perceptions of fishing communities.  The radio will offer daily bulletins in Malayalam based on IMD and INCOIS data.  "The forecasts can be disseminated through social media, loudspeaker narrowcasters, phone calls and word of mouth.”