2016 Year of Change: Return migration

Kerala witnessed some early signs of change in 2016. Some welcome changes, some fraught with long-term repercussions. Society and media will be watching if these signals become a trend in the months ahead.  It could be a boon or bane depending on how the state tackles the changes.

“High time Kerala explored fresh destinations for its employable talent pool, which has remained stuck with the Gulf. Our workforce could easily spread out to tap job opportunities in any part of the world,” says demographer and migration expert S Irudaya Rajan 2016 has seen Gulf jobs dwindle, especially in the backdrop of the falling oil prices as well as Arabization. Mass layoffs at leading construction firms left many jobless as chances for re-employment in the Gulf proved morbidly scarce. Centre for Development Studies faculty Rajan, doughtily pursuing migrations as an academic, speaks to DC on fresh initiatives to cushion the impact of the job loss.

Not yet alarming
Over the years the number of returnees has grown year by year. The number of emigrants from Kerala touched 24 L in 2014, up from 13.6 L in 1998. Obversely, the number of return emigrants reached 12.5 L in 2014, up from 7.39 L in 1998. As the trend continues, the number of emigrants and returnees will almost equalize within a year or two, Dr Rajan forecasts. “The situation is not alarming as of now, though it is indeed a cause for serious concern. It is high time that the state realized the gravity of the shrinking Gulf job market and took timely steps to avert a crisis,” says Dr Rajan.

Socioeconomic impact
At least one out of every five households in Kerala is directly dependent on Gulf money and an equal number indirectly. NRK contribution in terms of remittances to Kerala, surpassing Rs 1 L crore, is one-third of the state’s economy. Hence the state’s socioeconomic scene will feel the heat of the emerging Gulf-centric job crisis, says Mr. Rajan. Sectors such as construction and real estate are highly dependent on NRI funds. These factors highlight the need to initiate proactive steps to curb the adverse impact of return migration.

High time to explore new destinations
Having received sufficient indications of the worsening Gulf job scene, it is high time the state explored new destinations for the Malayali workforce. Re-skilling the workforce is an essential aspect in exploring new destinations. Instead of targeting a single destination, look at many destinations simultaneously. “We need to analyse the potential for a variety skills suitable for different locations. Kerala workforce could be fine-tuned to suit requirements of each location. There won’t be a dearth of openings if we nurture the right talent pool. For instance, the increasing aging population in European countries would open doors for more job opportunities in elderly care areas,” Mr. Rajan points out.

Redployable workforce
Over 90 percent of emigrants from Kerala are moving towards Gulf countries. UAE has the highest number of NRKs, about 9 L - 37.5 percent of the NRK population. Other destinations are Saudi Arabia, Oman and Kuwait, according to Kerala Migration Survey 2014, conducted by Mr. Rajan along with economist K C Zachariah. While about 25 percent of migrants are highly skilled, 25 percent are semi-skilled and the remaining 50 percent unskilled. Kerala’s unskilled pool acquires skills during their tenure in Gulf countries, says Rajan.