Kharif output tipped to rise by 5-6 per cent this year

Chennai: Kharif crop output this year is expected to increase by 5-6 per cent due to higher sowing acreage as well as increase in productivity.

Early onset and good distribution of the southwest monsoon will help a robust kharif output, Crisil Research has found. Better rains are likely to increase sowing acreage and productivity, which in turn may lead to a kharif crop that is higher by 5-6 per cent over last year.

As of August 21, rains were 7 per cent above the long-period average. Good spatial and temporal distribution supported sowing in most states.

Crop acreage is expected to rise by around 2-3 per cent to 1090 lakh hectares driven by higher sowing of most crops barring cotton, maize and vegetables.

Cereals will see a 2 per cent rise in acreage, oil seeds 7 per cent and pulses 4 per cent. Cash crop acreage will be lower by 1 per cent and vegetables by 2 per cent. However, fruits will see acreage going up by 2 per cent.  Area under vegetables, cotton and maize would be lower than the previous season as lower prices have discouraged farmers.

Crop productivity is expected to increase by 3 per cent over a low base of 2019. Last year excess rains during August-September led to crop damage in various parts of the country, negatively impacting soybean, groundnut, paddy and sugarcane yield.

This time, productivity of cereals may rise 2 per cent, cash crops 7 per cent, oil seeds 9 per cent and pulses 3 per cent. Productivity of fruits and vegetables may go up by 0.5 per cent.

“Among horticulture crops, productivity to increase only marginally as expected increase in fruit and spices productivity to be partially offset by excess rains in few southern states damaging vegetable crops,” said Hetal Gandhi, director, CRISIL Research.

Farm profit per hectare for field and horticulture crops is expected to increase 3-5 per cent in kharif season 2020, supported by higher crop acreage, expected improvement in productivity and government support to procurement at minimum support price.

Though a bumper kharif harvest would put downward pressure on prices, government support in procurement will boost profitability of paddy and sugarcane. Among horticulture crops, apple is expected to witness higher profitability because of improved yield over a low base of 2019 and anticipated increase in prices.

However, weak domestic and international demand will keep cotton and maize prices under pressure. Prices and profitability of vegetables are also likely to drop over a high base of 2019.