Low Pressure Over Bay; Cyclone Track Uncertain

Visakhapatnam: The cyclonic circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal and its adjoining areas of north Odisha and West Bengal coasts now lay over South Bangladesh and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal at 0.9 km above the mean sea level.

Under the influence of the cyclonic circulation over the South Andaman Sea, a low pressure area has formed over there and the adjoining Malacca Strait on Monday morning. It is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over southeast Bay of Bengal on November 29.

This is likely to move northwestwards and intensify further into a cyclonic storm over southeast Bay of Bengal during subsequent 48 hours, the weather office said.

Meanwhile, lower tropospheric easterly and south easterly winds prevailed over Andhra Pradesh and Yanam.

Private weather website Skymet said the cyclone could be fourth this year over the Bay of Bengal. It would be named Michaung, pronounced as Migjaun.

“The tracks of such cyclones remain most uncertain and are largely controlled by the steering current and the position of sub-tropical ridge. Any westerly trough deep in amplitude over the northern parts can further influence the recurvature, preventing a landfall along Indian coastline.”

Clarity comes once the system gets organised and manifested as a depression in the satellite images and wind field.

The report said the entire coastline from Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal to Bangladesh and Myanmar remain at risk of storms. “Storms emerging at this time of the season take a recurved track, bracing the AP and Odisha coast. Bangladesh remains equally vulnerable to landfall,” the website said.