Scientists sceptical of weather forecasts

Chennai: Scientists from the renowned research institutions are sceptical of the accuracy in the below normal monsoon predicted by a private weather forecasting agency recently.

Following the predictions of Sky Met Weather of a below normal monsoon this year in the country, experts said that it is ‘too early for a monsoon prediction.’
Skymet weather had stated that the below normal monsoon could be due to the El Nino effect, the phenomenon of warming of ocean waters at the pacific ocean. Speaking to Deccan Chronicle, Dr V. Selvam, Director of M. S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, said, “There are many factors of El Nino, which need to be studied. Unfortunately, India does not have research bodies that study the effects of El Nino.”

It is very early to decide on the impact of El Nino on the Indian Ocean, he said. “It may not affect the Indian ocean. Only if the monsoon winds are not generated or if it faces difficulties in reaching India, would the forecast by Skymet weather applies,” he mentioned, stressing on the need for a research body on El Nino.

In general, it is the science of predicting that needs to be improvised as India still sources, data on many weather conditions from the United States and Australia.
“We are now relying on other departments like US meteorological department. As there is a data insufficiency, a conclusion can’t be drawn. Meanwhile, the accuracy level of the Skymet weather prediction is not mentioned,” he stated.
Considering the fact that the monsoon is a global phenomenon, experts suggests looking into the wide range of aspects, besides El Nino.

Executive Director of Greenpeace India, Ravi Chellam said, “The factors that drive the monsoon are global. A part of the global geo chemical cycling, Monsoon is one of the peculiar climatic events that could be variable. Without a proper study, it is difficult to predict it.”

In a contrasting statement to the Skymet weather’s predictions, weather blogger, Bhaskaran Shivaraman said that the phenomenon of El Nino would actually a benefit to Indian monsoon.

“During El Nino years, a good southwest monsoon is observed across the country. By attributing the below normal monsoon to El Nino factor, they are just contradicting themselves,” said the weather blogger Bhaskaran Shivaraman.
It could be noted that the southwest monsoon is the vital rainfall source across the country except for South Indian states which primarily rely on northeast monsoon.

EL NINO

The phenomenon of warming of waters at Pacific, El Nino would have a global effect. Nom development of monsoon causing winds and obstruction in their shift are two possible reasons of why El Nino could affect the Monsoon at Indian Ocean