Monsoon dependency of Kharif in a decline

Chennai: While an above-normal monsoon has been predicted for this year, improved irrigation intensity, deployment of climate-resistant crops, and other productivity-related measures have lowered the Kharif dependency on monsoon rainfall over the years. However, the dependency on overall agriculture is still high as Rabi food grain output is still dependent on monsoon rainfall.

Traditionally, Indian agriculture is heavily reliant on the normal progression of monsoon rainfall. However, with the spread of irrigation facilities in the country, the dependency of Kharif output on monsoon rainfall has gradually declined. As per the latest data, the irrigation intensity at the all-India level or gross irrigated area as a proportion of gross sown area has improved to 55 per cent in FY21 from 41.8 per cent in FY2000. The irrigation intensity in central India improved to 44.1 per cent in FY21 from 25.6 per cent in FY2000 and this was the highest increase in irrigation intensity across any region. Consequently, the correlation of the monsoon rainfall deviation with Kharif output growth declined gradually to 0.5 during FY20-FY24 from 0.9 during FY2000-FY04.

Along with improved irrigation intensity, the deployment of climate-resistant crops and other productivity-related measures also have lowered the Kharif dependency on monsoon rainfall over the years. However, the dependency oF overall agriculture on rainfall is still high as is evident from the correlation of Rabi food grain output growth with monsoon rainfall deviation. The correlation stood at 0.7 during FY20-FY24 similar to FY15-FY19 but down from 0.9 during FY10-FY14. The high dependency of Rabi output on monsoon rainfall could be attributed to the importance of moisture left in the soil and water levels in the reservoirs after the withdrawal of the south-west monsoon.