Modi's visit to boost BJP's poll preparations in Kerala

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is all set to visit Kerala, one of the few states where opinion polls have often indicated that he is way behind Rahul Gandhi when it comes to people's choice for the top post.

A recent "mood of the state poll" conducted by an agency along with a regional news channel showed that 47.57 per cent of people in Kerala wanted Rahul Gandhi to become the prime minister. But what was startling about the survey findings was the huge gap between Mr Gandhi and Narendra Modi with the latter being favoured only by 19.05 per cent of people.

The BJP despite knowing fully well that Kerala is beyond its reach at least for now, has never shied away from initiating major attempts to make inroads into the state’s bipolar politics. In 2016 the party made a major move by bringing  Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), a political outfit formed by a section of backward class Ezhava community, into the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold.

The Ezhava community in Kerala has traditionally supported the Left, particularly the CPM. Some of the legendary leaders of the communists like K R Gowri Amma, V S Achuthanandan, and incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan belong to the community.

The BDJS formed with the blessings of Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP) and led by Thussar Vellapally, did give some anxious moments to the CPM and CPI in some constituencies in the 2016 assembly polls. However, it only managed to reduce the victory margin of the CPM and CPI. The Congress also faced setbacks in some constituencies.

But the BDJS factor in many ways helped the NDA to secure 14.96 per cent votes. This trend continued in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls with the NDA polling close to 15 per cent votes. However, the BJP faced a setback in 2021 when the front’s vote share dropped to 12.06 per cent mainly due to the poor performance of BDJS. The BJP also lost its lone sitting seat in the Thiruvananthapuram district.

The BDJS failed to make much of a dent in the economically backward sections of the Ezhava community, particularly the coir, cashew, toddy and agricultural workers. The BJP, however, continued its focus on the Ezhava community. At present the president of the Kerala unit of BJP is K Surendran and the lone union minister from the state is V Muraleedharan who is a Rajya Sabha MP from Maharashtra. Both belong to the Ezhava community.

The BJP is now eying the Christian community in Kerala. It has held a series of outreach programmes in the State during Easter and Christmas. Prime Minister Modi hosted bishops and prominent persons from Christian communities at his official residence for Christmas lunch.

Incidentally, the prime minister's main programme during his Kerala visit on Wednesday is in Thrissur, a constituency which the BJP is eying this time.

In 2019, the Congress won the seat securing 39.8 per cent votes and CPI with 30.9 pc came second. The BJP’s candidate and Malayalam actor Suresh Gopi surprised everyone by securing 28.2 per cent votes.

Though the BJP came third its vote share increased by a significant 17.05 per cent and that’s what makes the party confident of making it this time. Thrissur has a sizable number of Christian voters and the BJP hopes to make a dent into this vote bank which has traditionally supported the Congress.

The BJP believes that the PM’s visit on Wednesday during which he is scheduled to address Stree Shakthi Samagamam to be attended by over 2 lakh women and also take out a roadshow in the heart of the city, will give the much-needed boost to the party’s preparations for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.