Significance of bellwether of a bypoll

A relatively minor constituency with a high number of voters – 2.62 lakhs - goes to the polls on April 12. The significance of the Dr Radhakrishna Nagar bypoll, however, is far greater than its narrow confines and high density of population. Bypolls never raise the political frisson because they are usually assumed to be the playthings of the party in power, which can use its clout and its official machinery to make the result a virtually foregone conclusion. Not this time though as the very future of Tamil Nadu politics seems to hinge on the outcome in a part of the capital that has been made somewhat famous for having been the constituency of choice of a charismatic chief minister who ruled the state more like an empress.

It is the legacy of J.Jayallitha that several factions of her party are fighting for, towards which the winning of the RK Nagar bypoll becomes a virtual AIADMK referendum. Of course, this is not some intra-party poll but a serious democratic exercise in which the other Dravidian major, DMK is also in the fray. It is to be considered politically curious that a Dravidian major, which has shared power equally with its archrival AIADMK since the split in the 1970s, should throw into the fray a virtual unknown in its candidate, Marudhuganesh. That is the reason why there is such intrigue around what are DMK’s real intentions in such a path defining test of the public mood.

The national ruling party, BJP is also sniffing around in the hope that it could break through in Chennai, the logic being that if it can do it in such a difficult state like Uttar Pradesh, why can’t it nurse similar ambitions in places that have hardly seen saffron as a political force? While it was easy enough to predict the last general election in 2016 as one that would be a straight fight only between the two Dravidian majors and not even the other Tamil Nadu parties, the current state of AIADMK does not lend itself to such facile conclusions on the outcome. This is one big battle of party identity in Tamil Nadu and everyone knows it. Even then, it is hard to see BJP make an impact here yet.

The contest cannot be classified as one strictly between the old, new and emerging wings of the ruling party, which scattered into parts after the demise of the one leader who kept it together since the death of MGR in 198, regardless of whether she was in or out of power. Those running its major wing now can be people of cunning with some political experience from the background rather than leading formally from the front. Where they stand in the public eye is what the RK Nagar poll is about. That aspect is well known too, which is why the feeling persists that the stakes have never been higher in a bypoll in Tamil Nadu.

The big fight is between the major factions led by the Sasikala clan and O.Panneerselvam, who was the political stand-in at every crisis point for the legally beleaguered Jayalalithaa in the early part of the millennium right down to the time she reached the hospital in a critical state.  Where the two factions finish will hold the key to what happens in the government itself as a higher finish for the OPS faction could lead to major second thoughts in the minds of the 122 legislators who were confined to the sequestered surroundings of a luxury beach resort down the East Coast before the controversial trust vote. The EPS group could face desertions if it does not establish itself as the first choice of the people in this bellwether of a bypoll.

The wild card entry of Deepa Jayakumar, a niece of Jayalalithaa who bears a slight resemblance to her aunt, should make no impact in the poll save that she could get a few votes that may have otherwise gone to the two main factions. It is a curiosity that anyone who was somewhere close to the late chief minister or related should fancy themselves as qualified to lead the state. This is a comment on how low the perception of a high office has become in Tamil Nadu. If that is so, it is owed to a system by which political parties are run by imposing personalities rather than powerful parties and their bosses. There is no inner party democracy. There has never been. Most of India’s political parties are dynasties.

The other factor that people are talking about in TN polls is the power of money. Right from the day the Thirumangalam bypoll set the trend, money has changed hands for votes. Whether such sums alone are sufficient to induce votes is a moot point as people can take the moolah and vote as they wish. There is no party that can blame any other with a clear conscience on the bribing of voters. Why, the poll in two constituencies was countermanded before the general election because of the play of excessive money in 2016. The playing field can be expected to be more level in RK Nagar regardless of who is giving the voter what.