GHMC exit polls show TRS winner
Most polls conducted by more than half a dozen agencies pointed out that anti-incumbency factor did not impact the city elections
Hyderabad: Exit polls predicted that the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) would romp back to victory in the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation elections and that the BJP would emerge as the prime opposition party to the TRS in Hyderabad.
The TRS is expected to win between 70 and 80 seats, while the BJP would witness a massive increase in its strength by winning around 20 seats.
Most exit polls conducted by more than half a dozen agencies pointed out that the anti-incumbency factor did not significantly impact the city elections. Some agencies, however, indicated a silent wave, which if it works, the BJP’s tally could cross over 40 seats. All the agencies predicted a rise in the vote share of BJP in the GHMC elections.
The Center for Psephology Studies (CPS) projected a landslide victory for the TRS. According to its exit polls, the TRS would get 82-96 seats, MIM 32-38 seats, BJP 12-20 seats and the Congress just three-five.
Exit polls conducted by Third Vision (Naganna), a Hyderabad-based survey agency, projected a win for the TRS in 95 to 101 seats, MIM 35 to 38 and BJP 5 to 12 seats.
According to another survey agency People’s Pulse, the TRS could get 68-78 seats, which is a steep fall from its previous strength of 99. The BJP is likely to get 25-35 seats, which is a tremendous improvement over its tally of four seats in 2016. If there is a silent wave, the tally for the BJP might cross over 40 seats, says the survey.
The AIMIM is expected to get 38-42 seats, which is a tad less than the 44 seats that it had got in 2016. The Congress will end up with one to five seats.
Another survey agency Pulse Today predicts 86 to 90 seats for the TRS, 18-20 seats for the BJP, 34-38 seats for MIM and 1-2 seats for the Congress. Another agency Aara claimed that the TRS would get 78 seats (plus or minus 7), followed by MIM 41 seats, BJP 28 seats, and Congress three seats.
The Centre for Psephology Studies (CPS) has projected a 39.8 per cent vote share for the TRS, 27.9 per cent for the BJP, 14.7 per cent for the Congress, 13.4 per cent for the MIM, and 4.2 per cent for others. In 2016 elections, the TRS had around 44 per cent and the BJP 10 per cent.
Based on its exit polls, People’s Pulse claimed that the TRS leads the BJP by six per cent of the vote share. The TRS would get 38 per cent of the vote share while the BJP would get 32 per cent. The MIM and the Congress would get 13 and 12 per cent respectively.
The BJP would be the single largest gainer in the elections both in terms of vote share and seat share. The party expected a considerable consolidation of Hindu votes because of its high voltage campaign. Though the consolidation of the Hindu vote did not happen, there is a silent vote that has favoured the BJP. If this silent vote is substantial, then the BJP seat share may go up.
The Congress in the Malkajgiri Lok Sabha constituency appears to have performed well. This, however, could help the ruling party as the anti-government vote split has got among different parties.
The MIM is expected to register its best-ever strike rate among all parties that are in the fray.
The agency has also pointed out that in several divisions there were multi-cornered contests which suggests that excitement would run high till the final votes are counted. The multi-cornered contests have also turned to the advantage of the TRS.
The issues that dominated the elections are housing (28 per cent), unemployment (21 per cent), flood relief (16 per cent), traffic (12 per cent), roads (10 per cent), sanitation (9 per cent) and other Issues (4 per cent).