2018 Karnataka Assembly polls: Congress depends on South-West Monsoon

Bengaluru: The hardy son of a Mysuru farmer, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah knows better than anyone else that the prospects of the ruling Congress in the 2018 polls will depend on the success or failure of the South-West Monsoon this year. 

Any decision to prepone the polls to December, or hold them as scheduled in May next year, will crucially depend on the amount of rain the state receives and whether it will help restore the smile on the face of the drought scarred farmer, said sources.

Reports on the likelihood of the polls being advanced have been doing the rounds for quite some time with the opposition parties predicting that the Chief Minister will have an early election to coincide with the Gujarat assembly polls, likely in December. 

However, sources said that in case of bountiful rains till September when the monsoon starts receding,  there is no chance of an early poll. 

“If the major reservoirs fill up, it will give Mr Siddaramaiah the confidence that there will not be a water crisis next summer in March-May and he can therefore face the polls with hopes of a clear victory,” sources added.

If the monsoon fails or is less than normal this year leaving the dams half filled, the CM may not risk facing a water hungry population in May next year and may advance the polls to December when no region usually faces a water crisis. 

Though the party in power can hardly be blamed if the rains fall short of expectations,  Mr Siddaramaiah knows the bitter experience of former CM S.M. Krishna who ruled from 1999-2004.   Successive droughts made voters turn their back on the veteran leader, despite the huge progress the state achieved on the IT front and in development initiatives launched in Bengaluru under his stewardship. 

The Congress which saw a sharp fall in its numbers in the 2004 polls, had to seek the support of the JD(S) to make sure the BJP, which won the most seats in the assembly, did not come to power then. Mr Krishna too had to make an exit from state politics, making way for Dharam Singh.