AIADMK on a tight rope in seat talks

Chennai: The ruling AIADMK has settled down to the ‘inevitable’ alliance with the BJP for the coming Lok Sabha elections and a formal announcement is expected “very shortly” once the few hiccups over the sharing of constituencies are got over, according to informed sources.

“The BJP is driving hard bargain for some seats in the AIADMK stronghold, particularly in the Kongu belt in the northwest, where the ruling party had the best harvest in the 2016 Assembly polls. This is hurting us at the negotiations,” says an AIADMK senior requesting anonymity.

Senior ministers S.P Velumani and P. Thangamani are holding most of the talks with BJP’s main negotiator Nirmala Sitharaman. The tough Raksha Mantri comes every time thoroughly prepared with “figures and faces” — stats of previous voting percentages and the identities of people with good images and not-so-good public reckoning at the various zones and constituencies — and she makes sure of starting the bargaining with what’s best for her party in the prevailing situation, explains another party source.

The ‘prevailing situation’, as everyone is aware, is that the BJP has further dropped on its poor patronage in the Dravidian electorate in recent months. “It all started with the demonitisation and then the GST. Then there have been agitations, some of them violent, on multiple issues such as Sterlite and hydrocarbons. While the Seemans, the Vaikos and the multiple fringe outfits, besides of course the flashy Kamal Haasan, have been ripping apart the BJP, PM Modi included, there has not been any hard explaining of the NDA initiatives for positive development initiatives. We really have to start from scratch”, wailed an AIADMK leader, adding sourly that there “is hardly much time to do the repairing of hostile perceptions”.

And it’s been against such a rickety backdrop that the seat-sharing talks have been moving for the AIADMK’s saffron alliance; not to forget the “other big setback”, namely the absence of Amma from the poll scene. “Had she been alive now, Amma would have most certainly decided to go it alone and even improved upon the 2014 score of 37/39 seats. But she is not there and we are having multiple problems in our House”, said this AIADMK functionary.

The ‘multiple problems’ have been often bared by the opposition parties and leaders, DMK chief Stalin in particular, when they insist that the Edappadi K. Palaniswami government functions as the BJP’s lackey because of ‘skeletons in the cupboard’.

And so it must come as little surprise when news trickles out of the political corridors that the BJP has been making audacious bids to pluck plum seats from the AIADMK turf for its chosen candidates. Some of the names doing the rounds are, BJP controversial national secretary H. Raja (Sivaganga or Madurai), state secretary Vanathi Srinivasan (Coimbatore) and Union Minister Pon Radhakrishnan seeking to re-contest from his Kanyakumari seat. And then there’s state president Dr Tamilisai Sounderarajan reportedly wishing for the South Chennai seat.

Only Ponnar seems sound at his battlefield as he has done some good for the constituency and besides, the hardcore Hindu Nadar hopes to gain from the anti-Christian vote bank in the southern tip of the Indian peninsula; the rest of the saffron flock could be a big drag on the alliance, fears the AIADMK camp.

An AIADMK source points out that South Chennai will be difficult to part as the seat is held by Dr Jayawardhan, a medical MD barely 27 when he won the seat handsomely by a margin of over one lakh votes against the DMK strongman TKS Elangovan. The young MP has been working hard in the constituency and besides, he is the son of the party’s most vocal TV face, senior minister . Jayakumar. To take away South Chennai from him and gift that to someone who has been the darling of urban trolls is a difficult proposition for Amma’s camp.

Reports say the BJP has also asked for Erode/Dindigul (for Pariventhar Pachamuthu) and Vellore (A.C Shanmugam) - both have their own midget outfits but will contest on Lotus symbol. Besides, Tiruppur (C.P Radhakrishnan), Tirunelveli and Madurai are also said to be on the BJP wish list.

The AIADMK must also handle well the demands of the other prospective allies - the Vanniar-dominated PMK, DMDK of ‘Captain’ Vijayakanth and Puthiya Tamilagam (PT) of Dalit leader Dr Krishnaswamy. While the PT has limited presence in the southern districts to help, the DMDK vote-share has dried up drastically over the years and its ailing leader is unlikely to contribute in campaigning. The PMK is most likely to pitch its demand for seats in the northern districts that have significant Vanniar presence and has not been known to help partners elsewhere.