Exit polls give BJP 4 states, AAP 1

New Delhi: The BJP appears all set to return to power in a historic victory in Uttar Pradesh even though the numbers may not be as high as it got in 2017, Exit Polls 2022 predicted at the end of the seven-phase elections in the state on Monday. In Punjab, the exit polls indicate that the Aam Aadmi Party would dethrone the incumbent Congress government, and that Manipur would go the BJP way, while in Goa and Uttarakhand it seems to be a close contest between the Congress and the BJP, with a possibility of hung legislatures.

The Poll of Exit Polls brought out by NDTV shows the BJP getting about 231 seats in the 403-seat Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav getting 151 seats, the BSP managing 17 seats and the Congress getting just four seats. The Poll of Exit Polls for the 117-seat Punjab Assembly indicates 67 seats for the AAP, while in Uttarakhand and Manipur it indicates the BJP will be back in power with 35 and 30 seats, respectively. Uttarakhand has a 70-member Assembly while Manipur has 60 seats. Of the 40 seats in the fray in Goa, the Poll of Exit Polls shows 16 seats each for both the Congress and the BJP, clearly indicating a hung Assembly.

While the exit poll results is obviously making the BJP happy for the moment, the party remains guarded given the fact the exit polls went somewhat off the mark during the West Bengal Assembly polls last year. However, the Samajwadi Party remains confident with the “naraazgi votebank” due to the farmers’ agitation, the so-called “mishandling” of the Covid-19 pandemic, joblessness and pension issues. SP spokesman Ghanshyam Tiwari said it was confident that there will be a change in government this time in UP.

For the AAP, which is less than a decade old as a political party, it will be the biggest triumph since it first came to power in Delhi in late 2013.

In UP, Times Now-Veto has predicted 225 seats for the BJP, nine for the Congress and 151 for SP. India News has given 222-260 to BJP, 1-3 to Congress and 135-165 to SP, while according to NewsX-Polstrat the BJP is set to get 211-225 seats, SP anything between 146-160 and the Congress between four to six seats.

UP incidentally has never given a sitting chief minister the chance to return to office in the next election. Whether incumbent CM Yogi Adityanath manages to break this jinx is something that will be clear only on Thursday, when the results are out.

As per the exit polls, Punjab is clearly going the AAP way. Former psephologist and now politician Yogendra Yadav said if it is a two-horse race in UP, it is clearly a one-sided race in Punjab. According to the Zee News-Designboxed survey, the AAP may have got 39 per cent of the total vote share, followed by the Congress’ 25 per cent. According to Times Now-Veto, the AAP may get 70 seats while the News24 exit poll said the AAP could touch 100, leaving the Congress with just 10 seats.

In Goa, India TV-Ground Zero Research survey has predicted a victory for the Congress, with the party getting anything between 20-15 seats and the BJP managing 10-14 seats. India TV-CNX has given the BJP an edge in Goa, with a prediction of 16-22 seats and the Congress getting anything between 11 to 17 seats. Zee News-Designboxed has predicted 13-18 seats for the BJP and 14-19 for the Congress. Times Now-Veto has given 14 seats to the BJP and 16 to the Congress while India Today has predicted 14-18 for the BJP and 15-20 for the Congress.

As per separate exit polls, the Congress too has a chance in Uttarakhand. ABP News-CVoter predicts 32-38 seats for the Congress while the BJP, that has seen three CMs in the last five years, is predicted to get anything between 26 to 32 seats. As per India Today, the BJP can get 36-46 seats and the Congress 20-30. Zee News-Designboxed has predicted 26-30 seats for the BJP and 35-40 for the Congress, Times Now-Veto predicted 37 seats for the BJP and 31 for the Congress.

In Manipur, it appears the BJP faces no challenge and is likely to emerge as the largest single party, with 30 seats.