It is too close to call in Kerala polls
Kerala had always witnessed caste mobilizations.
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Monday’s elections to the 140-member Kerala Assembly looks too close to call as the impact of the alliance between the BJP and the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) will work out constituency-wise rather than at a pan-Kerala level, as a whistle-stop tour of key constituencies across the State reveals.
A few surveys have given an edge to the LDF but the pollsters’ methodology has always been esoteric denying the public the scope for a low-down on the findings. A survey predicting a pro-UDF tilt has also not been of much help, in deconstructing the methodology or understanding the rationale for its conclusions. And on many occasions in the past, the esoteric has proved to be erratic, on results-day!
Chief Minister Oommen Chandy on Saturday declared the NDA would not open its account, a view he shares with his front’s main rival, CPM state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan. But on the ground, one could sense there is a strong triangular contest, on an unprecedented scale, in many constituencies. For proof, the BJP’s most enduring contestant O. Rajagopal at 84 years may pull it off finally in Nemom, helping the party open its account in the Assembly, unless there is a rallying of the entire minority votes against him.
The NDA’s supposed surge has been blunted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s by-now-infamous “Somalia” reference. If the NDA manages even a couple of seats, as claimed by its leaders, it throws up the distinct possibility of a hung assembly, like in 1965 , with all its attendant consequences. Inducting Sree Narayana Dharma Pariplana Yogam-sponsored BDJS as an NDA ally has been a clever move by the BJP president Amit Shah, who has been replicating the OBC projection in other states too but it accentuated communal equations and electioneering was on blatantly communal lines. Quite visibly.
The influential (at least in a few constituencies in Central Travancore) Nair Service Society has not taken kindly to the BDJS’s high-stake involvement but purely in terms of numbers the dice is loaded against Nairs, who constitute 14 percent of the population while Ezhavas are far ahead, constituting 23 per cent and much more consolidated politically.
Ezhavas constitute the main cadre base of the LDF and any BDJS accretion will be to the disadvantage of the Left. Not for nothing is it stated that actually Kerala’s genuine Hindu party is the CPM! If the BJP were to poach the NSS vote, it will hit the UDF hard. After all, the BJP State president, Kummanam Rajasekharan, is an acceptable face to the NSS.
Kerala had always witnessed caste mobilizations. But what is evident this time there is a pronounced Muslim-Christian minority mobilization as seen in passionate welcomes accorded to Chief Minister Oommen Chandy at UDF rallies which DC saw.
In terms of popular acceptance, he has clearly relegated the Congress’s Mr Clean and Sonia confidante, A.K. Antony, to the second place. Campaign-wise, the LDF was ahead — no surprises here, cadre-based as it is — closely followed by the NDA, which was flush with funds and lent the impression of being a serious challenger, as marketing management experts would say. The election also marked politicians, including Opposition leader V S Achuthanandan, at 93 years, coming of age on the cyber front.