OBC Reservations in Parliament, Assemblies on Card in Special Session?

HYDERABAD: There is a huge possibility that Parliament, during its five day special session, will bring in a Bill to provide for reservations for the Other Backward Castes (OBCs) of up to 25 per cent for all seats in the Lok Sabha and all state Legislative Assemblies.

This could bring up the total quota to a fraction less than half to avoid the contentious Supreme Court ruling imposing a ceiling on the quota based on caste to up to 49 per cent. Currently, out of 543 Lok Sabha seats, 84 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes (approximately 15 per cent) and 47 are designated for Scheduled Tribes communities (approximately 8 per cent).

The new move could result in 135-odd Lok Sabha seats, and a quarter of all seats in State Assemblies being reserved for OBCs henceforth. If implemented quickly, it could result in OBCs gaining one in four seats in all states, including in the five states slated for polls in the months ahead — Telangana (approximately 29 to 30), Chhattisgarh (22 to 23), Madhya Pradesh (57 to 58), Mizoram (10) and Rajasthan (50).

Constitutionally, and legally, the issue before the BJP-led Central government is to find a way to provide for reservations of seats without the affecting the work of the Delimitation Commission, which is the rightful body to earmark, delineate and define the boundaries of political constituencies, Central or state, said a senior BJP leader and lawyer.

However, there are precedents where Parliament can overrule the last delimitation panel for specific purposes and limited uses, he said.

Ever since the special Parliament session was called, there have been several speculative theories and ideas proposed as regards its purpose, including the possibility of bringing in women reservation, a Bill to enforce the One Nation, One Election (ONOE) code, a possible change of name from India to Bharat, among others.

“The Modi government would rather bring in a Bill which can find political consensus. It would be hard to imagine anything would fit that requirement better than additional reservations for the OBCs in Parliament and State Assemblies. There is not one political party or leader in India who can oppose it,” he explained.

The Bill, if produced in Parliament, is likely to be supported by every single party and formation, which could then provide for a temporary extension of the term for the five states, without imposing President’s rule and scheduling them with Lok Sabha elections.

“If we can postpone the polls for five states, and make them coincide with Parliamentary polls, it would become nine states going to polls together. If we add Jammu & Kashmir, and pre-schedule a few BJP states, it could be a beta for the ONOE idea,” he said.

Another senior BJP leader said, “the truth is no one really or fully knows what will unfold during the five day special session of Parliament, except the top brass of the party and government,” (referring to the top duo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah). And added, “whatever they plan, they are meticulous and thorough. So every aspect has been thought through to the last detail.”

But one thing is certain – everyone will be in for a big, big surprise, he added. “If indeed we bring in the OBC quota bill, a win far bigger than in 2019 is on the anvil.”