It was LDF all the way

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Straight off the bat, it looked ominous for UDF. Just 10 minutes into the counting of the postal votes, LDF seemed to have got off to a solid lead; it was ahead in eight constituencies while UDF was up only in two. But in five minutes, as if proving the political axiom that good starts are deceptive, UDF pulled things back.

Suddenly, the contest looked too close to call. If LDF led in 19, UDF led in almost as many, 18. And 40 minutes into the counting, it even looked as if Oommen Chandy would create history. For the first time after counting began, UDF demonstrated a clear dominance, its tally triumphantly strutting before the exit poll numbers.

It was leading in 51 while LDF was only in 46. By then NDA, too, had sprung a surprise. It was leading in two places. Besides Nemom, BJP’s candidate V. N. Manoj was leading in Kanjirapally (Manoj eventually settled for third). But the seeming resurgence was the last gasp of the loser. In five minutes, LDF just pulled away. By 9 a.m., when leads were out for 133 constituencies, LDF led in 78 and UDF in 51. This was the healthiest tally UDF could manage in the day.

By this time, a Left wave was beginning to be felt, in no less a place than Malappuram. Although only less than 20 percent of the votes have been counted, LDF had the upper hand in six IUML fortresses (eventually UDF lost two of its sitting seats).

During the middle stage, two BJP candidates were consistently leading. Rajagopal never lost his lead, but the second BJP hope alternated between Sobha Surendran (Palakkad), K. Surendran (Manjeswaram), and Ravish Thanthri (Kasargod).  At one stage, Sobha Surendran had a lead of more than 8000. However, by 10 a.m. it was clear Ms Surendran and Thanthri will not be able to hold on. Rajagopal never once flinched.

By 10.20 a.m., the first result was announced: CPM’s K. Ansalan trounced sitting MLA R. Selvaraj by 9314 votes. In quick succession, Thiruvambady fell to CPM, and the biggest surprise, Congress’s Varkala Kahar was felled by CPM’s debutant V S Joy.

With the game already won, attention shifted to the micro-contests. The nail-biting ones were being played out in Azheekode, Kannur, Paravur, Nemom, Vattiyoorkavu, Peerumedu, and toward the end, after giving the impression that he had given up, Surendran began putting up a mighty comeback in Manjeswaram. K M Shaji’s win over Nikesh Kumar was the most sensational, and Surendran 89-vote loss the most tragic.