Intelligence info boosts Chandrababu Naidu poll hopes

Hyderabad: It is common for politicians to dismiss exit polls when the predictions are not to their liking. But Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu may have a “strong reason” to not believe the exit polls.

As per the initial calculation based on the field reports, the winnability factor of the candidates, caste equations and, importantly, the mony spent in the constituencies, the state intelligence department reportedly predicted that the YSRC would get 116 seats. But no sooner had the matter reached the higher ups in the department, a review was ordered.

The figure, after the review, came down to 105 from 116. But this too was not satisfactory and another review was done and the number of seats given to Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy’s party was around 80, while the TD was projected to win around 90 seats and the same was conveyed to the powers-that be.

“It is not clear whether the reviews were done to please someone or they were genuine and the numbers arrived at were dependable. But as far as the Chief Minister is concerned, he is going by the final numbers given to him by the intelligence department. Like any Chief Minister, he too would like to trust his intelligence department which has much more clarity about the ground situation,” sources in the know of developments told this newspaper, adding that the party leadership was “all prepared” with their own “strategies” once the election results are out on May 23.

Various exit polls have predicted a sweep by the YSR Congress, both in the Assembly as well as the Lok Sabha elections.

According to the India Today-Axis My India exit polls, YSRC will get between 118 and 135 seats while another agency, Centre for Psephology Studies (CPS) Foundation for Rural and Social Development predicted 133 to 135 seats for Mr Jagan’s party. People’s Pulse has predicted 112 seats for the party. “In comparison with exit polls, looks like the initial calculations of the Intelligence wing, giving 116 seats, looks believable,” one official said.

Be it the Government at the Centre or the state, all ruling parties rely on the calculations of their own intelligence agencies. It is based upon these calculations that politicos often prepare their strategies in the run up to the day when elections results are declared.

In fact, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll suggests that Mr Naidu’s last minute sops to the electorate, a string of schemes worth Rs 30,000 crore, will not help the party retain power. In 2014 elections, TD had won 102 out of the total 175 assembly seats while the YSRC got only 67.

The TD supremo still seems to be going by the calculations made by his own state Intelligence wing which is said to have given the yellow party around 90 seats while giving YSR Congress around 80 seats, which, if required, also gives scope for the yellow party to indulge in certain “strategies” once the election results are declared —  something the TD  appears to be banking upon heavily.

But whether or not it is known to Mr Naidu, the initial calculations by his core team had reportedly given YSR Congress 116 seats and it was after two reviews of their own calculations that they gave around 80 seats to YSR Congress. The original calculation (of 116 seats) seems not very far from what exit polls have predicted for Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s party.

Top sources told Deccan Chronicle that the political wing of the state Intelligence department had conducted its own survey by March but since the initial findings were not to the “liking” of some top officials, it was reviewed twice