It's Kerala, only coalitions work here
This election is not likely to throw up any major swings or shifts.
Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala’s experiment with coalitions has been ‘successful’ in that it has lent stability to regimes, ensuring alternating governance after every general election. But the pursuit of power prevented the coalitions from undertaking radical reforms, leading to stagnation especially in core sectors of education and health.
Land reforms, literacy movement, people’s campaign and decentralized planning added lustre to the famed Kerala model of development, marked by low per capita incomes and higher human development index, matching European standards.
But successive ministries since 1980 failed to change lives of the people radically. The legacy of the State-funded health and education through the 1950s to 1970s encountered major challenges in 1980’s and the situation continues unabated. The two sectors were opened up for private players but it led to compromising on standards and undermined the quality of service to large sections of the people.
Yet the coalitions thrived by adopting a please-all policy of distributing goodies. This did not trigger any major upheaval by deprived sections because social pressure groups, represented by different parties, shared the spoils of power.
Congress and CPM, leading the rival fronts, managed the coalitions to their advantage, increasing their clout in terms of vote share and seats at the expense of the junior partners. Congress showed better skills in managing the coalition as proved by its ability to retain major allies-Muslim League and Kerala Congress- even while inducting JD (U) and bringing back RSP, an ally of the 1970s.
The latter would have continued to remain in the LDF but for the Big Brother attitude of the CPM, which had seemed supremely confident of retaining its mass base even at the cost of losing a few junior allies. CPM even now hopes minority vote accretions would more than make up for the loss of the two allies- JD (U) and RSP- if only it is able to expose real threats posed by majoritarian politics.
What has become crucial over the decades is the narrowing of vote share margin between the principal coalitions, the LDF and UDF. This election is not likely to throw up any major swings or shifts. The winner takes all is no more relevant, given staunch voter loyalties towards either front.
But this could be a watershed election if BJP improves its performance in terms of vote percentage or opens its electoral account. This would propel parties towards the winning coalition, whether it be LDF or UDF, to checkmate the BJP.
But experts believe the minorities have already sensed the threat posed by the BJP-BDJS alliance and would swing to the side that appears to do well than wait till after the elections for the parties to rally behind the winning coalition to broaden a coalition against rightwing forces.