What Does The Split Augur for Tamil Nadu?

Chennai: The snapping of ties between the BJP and AIADMK could lead to a tectonic shift in the State’s political arena, particularly in the run up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, as the coming months could see realignments, change of loyalties and the formation of a third front.

Though there are sections of leaders in both the BJP and AIADMK who might resent the breakup for obvious reasons, most supporters of BJP and AIADMK are happy about it. As such the parties do not share any ideological moorings or pursue any common goal and it was only a marriage of convenience for both.

In fact, the old guards of the AIADMK found the alliance to be a thorn in their flesh given the BJP’s unpopularity among its traditional supporters from the minority communities and also some small Muslim outfits that had formed alliances with it in the past.

On the other hand, many hardcore BJP supporters felt that it was the AIADMK that benefited from the alliance as the State party contested in more constituencies and garnered more of its votes when many AIADMK voters from the Dravidian stock would rather vote for the DMK than the BJP candidates.

But still, the grassroots level electoral infrastructure of the AIADMK and its dedicated members were in large numbers all over the State to give the necessary backing to the BJP candidates, many in the party feel.

Also those who might get a few seats – the BJP was asking for at least 10 from the AIADMK – to contest the election would require not only the AIADMK votes to win but also the party’s support in the hustings to make their presence felt.

In the AIADMK camp, the perceived disadvantage is their inability to name a Prime Ministerial candidate as their own if they chart their own course when the rival DMK will be asking for votes to make Rahul Gandhi, or whoever the INDIA alliance announced as candidate, as the Prime Minister.

However, there is also a possibility of the many parties gravitating towards the AIADMK that is now shorn of its BJP yoke. Most of the parties in the State are now sticking to the DMK alliance even if they have differences because they cannot be associated with the Hindutva party in the State known for its secular politics.  

But the free AIADMK, looking out for new allies, could attract some of those parties even if they are now stuck with the DMK-led coalition. If such new alliances are forged, there could be a total realignment of political forces in the State, giving rise to a refreshingly new political fight.

With the BJP planning to rope in the AMMK, led by T T V Dhinakaran, V K Sasikala and O Panneerselvam as foot soldiers for Narendra Modi in the electoral battle and hopeful of having parties like the PMK, Puthiya Tamilagam, TMC of G K Vasan, DMDK, New Justice Party of A C Shanmugam and IJK of Parivendhar as allies, there is every possibility of an effective third front, led by the BJP.

Between the two fronts led by the DMK and AIADMK, too, there could be floor crossings throwing up opportunities for smaller parties to negotiate with the Dravidian majors. Thus the AIADMK letting the BJP go could actually reduce the capacity of the coalition leaders to dictate terms to minor allies.

So, the coming days could be interesting to watch parties exploring new avenues and bargaining for better deals marking a change in the State’s political dynamics. It would also result in the demolition of the latest Dravidian versus Hindutva confrontation that was emerging of late.

Not only the DMK would not be able to raise the Hindutva bogey to garner votes, even the AIADMK alliance cannot project itself as the only protector against the DMK as there will be other contenders to assuage both the fears.