Exit Poll Predictions Fall Short: BJP Performance Below Par
NEW DELHI: The biggest losers in the Lok Sabha elections were the pollsters, most of whom had predicted a whopping majority for the NDA with about 365 seats and the BJP crossing the 350 mark alone. The incumbent BJP performed below par and fell short of exit poll predictions and the majority mark on its own.
Several pollsters claimed that the Opposition under the INDIA bloc will get anything between 125 and 150 seats and the Others will win about 35 seats. The Opposition had dismissed these exit polls and asked people to wait till the counting day.
After the result sent shockwaves to pollsters, psephologist Pradeep Gupta, who conducted the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, wept on screen as he fumbled with explanations.
To his credit, Mr Gupta has been near perfect in his past predictions. Many others have also proved to be wrong in the past, like the Chanakya, whose predictions had failed miserably. It never recovered to gain the credibility it used to enjoy at one point in time. Mr Gupta too will take time to gain the confidence of the people.
“We predicted 360-401 seats for the NDA, the tally is 295. We are behind in our lower range by 66. What went wrong were the predictions in the three big states -- Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. In UP, we predicted 67 for the NDA, but it won 37 seats. In West Bengal, it was the reverse. In Maharashtra, we predicted 28 for the NDA and 20 for the INDIA bloc, but the seat tally was the opposite. There is a loss of 60 seats in these three states where we went totally wrong. In Haryana, we said the INDIA bloc will get 4; it is 6-4 now. Karnataka, out of 28, we gave the NDA 20-25 it is 18,” Mr Gupta said on air while the counting was still going on.
“We are not spot on, but we said the NDA will form a government. In three states, Dalits, Muslims and Yadavs played important roles. In Uttar Pradesh, the major narrative was Ram Mandir, the change of Constitution and the reservation due to which the Dalit and underprivileged shifted first,” Mr Gupta tried to explain. But his team itself failed to see this on the ground during exit poll surveys or did they choose to ignore it?
For several people on the ground and the journalists who were interacting with the voters, such predictions from exit polls were surprising because they found the pictures on the ground to be different.
Psychologist Yogendra Yadav, whose predictions were spot on, said he was surprised to see all exit polls on various TV channels were speaking in the same tone as if they were trying to set a narrative.
Some of these psephologists, reportedly, also conduct surveys for the BJP. It is alleged that some of the psephologists were taking dictations from a few BJP leaders and their numbers tallied with the off-the-record briefing by the party leaders. One political leader said that everyone knew that the INDIA bloc was going to do well, but the pollsters were told to keep the margins low in exit polls to demoralise the cadres and distract the polling agents who would sit for counting.
“The exit polls are a ploy by the BJP. They know that the people of India have voted in favour of the INDIA bloc and they are laying the trap to sabotage the verdict that is set for tomorrow,” said the Congress.
AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal had also talked about "theories" behind the "high number of seats" predicted in exit polls. "There is also a theory that they have shown so many seats (in favour of the NDA) because their people have invested in the stock market. And tomorrow, when the stock market opens, there will be such a bumper gain that they will sell their shares and escape," he claimed.
The biggest game-changing results came from Uttar Pradesh, which the pollsters ignored for reasons they may not be able to explain openly.
In Uttar Pradesh, the exit polls had predicted the BJP to get 65 out of 80 seats.
The India Today-Axis My India poll had predicted the numbers for the BJP in the 42 seats in West Bengal could be as high as 26-31 seats, while the Trinamul Congress may get relegated to 11-14 seats. The results were just the opposite.
In Maharashtra, out of 48 seats, the exit polls had predicted that the NDA may get 28-32 seats, out of which the BJP will bag 20-22 seats. Out of the 14 seats contested, Eknath Shinde Shiv Sena was expected to get around 8-10 and Ajit Pawar’s NCP 1-2 seats compared to 3-5 seats for Sharad Pawar’s party. The Congress was projected to get 3-4 seats, while Uddhav Thackrey’s (UBT) Shiv Sena was predicted to win 9-11 seats out of the 23 seats it contested. The results in Maharashtra are also way off the mark from what was predicted by the exit polls.