Voting Pattern Shows Congress Lead with 9 MPs, BRS 7
HYDERABAD: Major parties are concerned over the swing in the voting behaviour in the Lok Sabha polls from the Assembly elections. The example being cited is that of the BRS, which won 88 seats in the 2018 Assembly elections. On that ground, it should have been the leading party in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 but could win only 9 seats, followed by the BJP with 4, the Congress with three and the AIMIM one.
In the Lok Sabha elections, the BRS was ahead in 71 Assembly segments, surrendering the lead in 17 others.
The BJP which had won one Assembly seat, secured the lead in 25 segments in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Only the Congress managed to maintain its majority in 21 Assembly seats in both the 2018 Assembly elections and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
In the 2023 Assembly elections, the Congress came to power by winning 65 seats (including one seat by its ally CPI), while the BJP increased its tally to eight. The BRS tally came down to 39, while the AIMIM retained its traditional seven seats.
If the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections were to witness the same voting pattern of December 2023 Assembly polls, then the Congress will get nine Lok Sabha seats, which will include, Peddapalli, Zaheerabad, Mahbubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Nalgonda, Bhongir, Warangal, Mahabubabad and Khammam.
The BRS will get seven Lok Sabha constituencies: Adilabad, Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Medak, Malkajgiri, Secunderabad and Chevella. The AIMIM will retain its Hyderabad seat. The BJP will draw a blank as it failed to secure a majority in any of the Lok Sabha constituencies.
However, it is unlikely for voting patterns to repeat as people are voting differently in Assembly polls and Lok Sabha polls.
After losing power in December 2023, the BRS is at the receiving end as a large number of leaders and cadre migrated to the Congress and the BJP and the party is struggling to make a mark in the Lok Sabha polls. While the Congress has set itself a target to win 15 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP is also aiming for double-digit seats.
The Congress and the BJP are competing with each other to eat into the vote share of BRS and improve their seats in Lok Sabha polls as compared to 2019.