Cyclonic Circulation Likely Over Andaman Sea

Visakhapatnam: A fresh upper air cyclonic circulation is very likely to form over North Andaman Sea around October 20, said IMD, Amaravathi on Thursday. The report said under its influence, a low pressure area likely to form over Central Bay of Bengal around October 22, thereafter, it is likely to move northwestwards and intensify further.

Meanwhile, the well marked low pressure area over South coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining North coastal Tamil Nadu persisted and associated cyclonic circulation extended upto 5.8 Km above mean sea level tilting southwestwards with height. It is likely to move west-northwestwards and weaken further into a low pressure area.

Private weather website Skymet said a cyclonic circulation is likely to appear over the North Andaman Sea and adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal on October 19 or October 20. The system will enter the region from the Myanmar-Thailand side as a spillover of cyclonic circulation moving across the Gulf of Martaban and the Arakan Coast. The circulation is likely to get organized further and also move to the central parts of the Bay of Bengal on October 21 and 22. Further prognostication of this system may not be authentic at this stage. Weather models reliability is lowered after 4-5 days and therefore, the weather system will be observed for the next 48 hours.

As a climatological norm, any of these low-pressure areas over the Indian Seas have the potential to strengthen into tropical storms. Availability of heat potential and sufficient sea travel remain the mandatory conditions. The entire coastline from Odisha, West Bengal, Bangladesh and Myanmar is vulnerable to the storm strike. Environmental conditions decide the intensity and the steering current, and its likely track. The longer the sea travels, the better are chances for intensification, the Skymet said.