Talking Turkey: Germans must lead

With Britain’s shock exit from the European Union (EU), the geopolitical map of the Continent is undergoing a dramatic change. While the United States is grieving over losing its closest partner and main interlocutor with the EU across the Atlantic, Germany has its inhibitions in assuming the leadership role, given its 20th century past. However, there is no option for Germany, the biggest and most dynamic economy, but to don the mantle of the leader. It was significant that after the first summit of EU held without Britain for more than 40 years, it was German Chancellor Angela Merkel who faced the press. The meeting was called informal because London has not yet activated the treaty article setting the two-year timeline for completing its departure.

Britain’s divorce is bound to be messy because the victorious “leave” side has not done its sums on the consequences of departure and it wants to remain in the single market without having to allow free movement of EU nationals. For Europeans, this is a no-go area. One thing is clear: the UK’s role in Europe and the world will be diminished because although it will remain a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), the salience of Germany and France will grow, if only because America must now rely on them to pursue its geopolitical goals in Europe.

But the central problem facing Europe, the US and the world is Germany’s future role. One of the major attractions of the EU idea for her neighbours was to tie it down in a larger institution and it was the brilliance of German diplomacy and its impeccable post-World War II record that it succeeded in convincing the East in the shape of the then Soviet Union and West that a reunited Germany would work for the common good. As it happened, Germany developed a consensus at home on a pacifist role, despite American efforts to get German forces to play a
more muscular role.

Unwillingly or otherwise, Germany must assume the EU leadership at a testing time for the alliance and the world. Signs of nationalism are rearing their head, with the far-right feasting on concern over a seemingly endless flow of refugees from war-torn Syria and elsewhere. Second, the march of technology is making many workers with basic education redundant and the middle class is rebelling over stagnant wages and growing disparity — the rich getting richer. On the economic front, the German regimen of austerity in times of difficulty, which has served it so well, is deeply unpopular among many member states, particularly in the southern rim. Greece presents a salient case because the privations it must suffer for its past extravagance and irresponsibility are deeply unpopular and the hope is that Berlin will be forced to loosen the purse strings somewhat.

The ascendance of Germany is likely to have a major influence on Europe’s relationship with Russia because Washington’s lead in imposing sanctions on Moscow after its annexation of Crimea, egged on by the Baltic states and Poland, is unpopular among many EU members. Germany has been an important trading partner of Moscow and other members such as Italy are keen to resume trade ties. It is no secret that the socialist coalition partners of Ms Merkel are critical of continuing anti-Moscow sanctions. And Washington will no longer have Britain fighting for its cause in European councils.

Now that circumstances have pitch-forked Germany into the EU leadership role, what kind of transformation will take place in a country that has been at the heart of making war and peace on the Continent in preceding centuries? Ms Merkel has been a steady and popular leader but has met reverses over welcoming Syrian refugees, which have encouraged such parties as Alternative for Germany and other right-wing elements. She must damp down this challenge to retain her position at home. In fact, extreme right-wing parties have spread their wings in many EU member states, including France, the Netherlands and Spain. It would appear that after half a century and more of tasting the benefits of belonging to a common organisation, the shoots of nationalism are sprouting again, now being promoted in an exaggerated form in Hungary and Poland in particular.

Undoubtedly, in the foreign policy field there will be less of Russia-baiting because most EU members are interested in a more cooperative relationship. It remains to be seen how the calibration of this policy will affect Nato. Washington will push its agenda to strengthen anti-Russian moves at the organisation’s next summit meeting soon. But with Britain now sitting outside EU, most members’ enthusiasm, except for Poland and the Baltic states, will ebb. It must be recognised, however, that the EU is no longer the organisation it was, with booming markets and the gains of coming together leading to much optimism. The recession of 2008 did much to change the mood and as economic difficulties mounted, so did people’s grouses and the new attraction of nationalist jingoism. The new task of the national leadership across EU is to bring the political discourse back to the centre.

Indeed, this is a Herculean endeavour for Ms Merkel. Thus far she has sought to bring down the temperature on both sides of the pond. Brexiteers’ demand that they must remain in the single market while restricting the movement of EU nationals was met with invectives from the Continent. And there are any number of people in the remaining 27 EU members who are angry with the UK for this unprecedented step to vote to leave the group and want their revenge. Their anger has increased after Brexiteers said they were in no hurry to trigger the mechanism to get the clock ticking on their departure. Ms Merkel’s counsel has been that while Britain does not have eternity to start formal negotiations, it should be given some time to reorder priorities and the divorce need not
be nasty.