K.C. Singh | G-20's outcome uncertain amid multiple challenges

The Leaders’ Summit of the Group of Twenty, or G-20, is being held in New Delhi on September 9-10, after a nine-month mega buildup by India. There is a domestic context as well as a geopolitical one. It is perhaps not coincidental that India is hosting it just months before the Lok Sabha elections. Scheduling is done by mutual arrangement within one of five groups which gets a turn by rotation.

However, employing the multilateral conference’s hoopla for domestic political gain and image building is hardly exclusive to the BJP. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, after regaining power in 1980, was keen to erase the stigma of declaring the 1975-77 Emergency, which had dented her global image. The Commonwealth summit was scheduled in November 1983 for this purpose. The Non-Aligned Summit (NAM) came as a surprise addition in March 1983, when Iraq failed to hold it due to the ongoing Iran-Iraq war. NAM had lost direction under Cuba. The two summits gave Mrs Gandhi a huge boost domestically as well as internationally.

The G-20 has evolved considerably since its conception in 2008, after the banking crisis that hit American financial institutions. Themes got added as global priorities evolved. The 2015 Paris Climate Accord brought climate change and mitigation financing to the fore. The Covid-19 pandemic’s outbreak in 2020 added global health to its agenda. The Ukraine war triggered food and energy security concerns. Thus, the agenda evolved from macroeconomic issues to trade, sustainable development, health, agriculture, energy, environment, climate change and anti-corruption.

The themes are handled by two main groups -- Finance and Sherpa. In addition, Engagement Groups rope in civil society, parliamentarians, think tanks, women, youth, labour, business and researchers. The objective being to harness the energies of disparate groups to achieve, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi spelt had out in his PTI interview, a “sustainable, inclusive and equitable” world.

India has to date hosted 220 meetings in 60 cities of all 28 Indian states and eight Union territories. Prime Minister Modi, also in the PTI interview, spelt out how India had shaped the basic themes. They run from Startup 20 to Disaster Risk Reduction and focus on Millets, Cyber Security, Counternarcotics, Life Principles, Women-led Development, Traditional Medicines. Mr Modi concluded that India was laying out the “roadmap for the future”. It is “Vishwa Guru” in practice rather than just via pronouncements.

However, aspiring is easier than achieving. Multiple challenges are presented by geopolitical factors. The absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping highlight two obvious difficulties. The Ukraine war has polarised the G-20 group into those opposing Russia and the ones supporting it or wishing to remain neutral. As the G-20 operates on consensus, this has stymied resolutions.

Complicating it further are the India-China differences and the testy US-China ties. This is the first G-20 summit that Xi Jinping is skipping.

What is China’s strategy in doing so? First, it comes days after the Brics summit and expansion in South Africa. India went along with the Chinese keenness to expand the group but found that it did not mellow Chinese recalcitrance on the border question. An early hint was the Chinese briefing that India sought the meeting. Then followed the publication of a map showing large parts of Indian territory as Chinese. The obvious conclusion is, as headlined by the New York Times, that China is snubbing India. A more reasoned explanation can be that Xi’s domestic economic difficulties, slumping exports and high unemployment among the youth may have made him fear losing face amongst his peers. That perhaps explains him skipping the Brics Business Forum speech, which his commerce minister delivered on his behalf. Nikkei Asia has reported that at China’s last Beidaihe meeting, an annual gathering of Communist Party stalwarts, Xi was reprimanded for mishandling the economy and foreign relations. Zang Qinghong, a former vice-president and confidant of late President Jiang Zemin, had delivered the message.

Alternatively, Xi Jinping may be downgrading the G-20’s role as he, and President Vladimir Putin, now have an expanded Brics to use as a countervailing platform. The expansion has left India’s sway in Brics diminished as it was made without any transparent norm. For instance, G-20 members Turkey and Indonesia did not find a place, but Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran did. This appeared like a balancing game to please China without offending the US excessively.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi justified Brics’ expansion as a boost to a multipolar world. The argument can be contested as while NAM was a pole distinct from the two poles, the US and Soviet Union, Brics is built around China and Russia which are assuming the role of a rival pole. Thus, the strengthening Brics will only add to that pole’s relevance. The Chinese conduct in the aftermath of the Johannesburg Brics summit confirms their assumed exceptionalism. The US understands this and hence President Joe Biden is coming to the New Delhi summit despite a Covid-19 scare caused by his wife testing positive, to ensure the G-20 remains relevant.

On some G-20 agenda points, India has scored well. India’s Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) is seen as a success. Thus, India has been able to obtain consensus on its working definition, its norms and a roadmap. However, basic issues, like privacy and data safety, which the government downplays in India, would need addressing globally.

However, India has created a great model for using digital services for financial inclusion and extension of social benefits.

Overall, India has used its one-year G-20 chairmanship to project the BJP and the Prime Minister at home and Indian achievements abroad. The Economist concluded in February that “the G-20 looks extremely unlikely to reach consensus, let alone take action, on any significant item on India’s agenda”. It sounded cynical six months ago.

Today, it appears to be realistic due to the global political uncertainty. Francophone Africa faces an epidemic of military coups. Domestic political ratings are low for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron, US President Joe Biden and Canadian PM Justin P. Trudeau. China’s stalling economy is making President Xi more risk prone and aggressive. The Ukraine war is not nearing an outcome or ceasefire.

The possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House may be encouraging President Putin to await the US presidential election in November 2024. All told, in cricketing T20 terms, the G-20 pitch has an uneven bounce, leaving the outcome uncertain.