India Inc can help to deepen ties with Asean
Some reports gave the impression that Indian diplomacy had only one aim, to project Pakistan as the epicentre of terrorism.
The Asean summits on September 6-7 followed by the India-Asean Summit and East Asia Summit on September 8 in Vientiane provided the platform for India’s high-profile role in the region. While some reports gave the impression that Indian diplomacy had only one aim, to project Pakistan as the epicentre of terrorism, the reality is India’s focus was extensive. A careful study of documents point to further progress in our “Act East” policy.
Asean is often seen as a talk shop. Its two summits in Laos led to 57 documents, including the principal statement by the Chair that ran into 135 paragraphs. But the grouping has many solid achievements to its credit. It will celebrate its 50th anniversary next year. It continues to register success, albeit gradually, in strengthening regional integration, both within its 10 member states and with a wide circle of dialogue partners, including China and India.
The backdrop to the latest summits was marked by some destabilising develop-ments in the South China Sea, largely due to China’s behaviour and its rejection of the award by The Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration. This complex issue has stretched Asean’s unity to the limit. In July 2016, the foreign ministers of Asean and China crafted a common position on this issue, that was reiterated by the heads of state and Laos. This, however, didn’t hide the fact that Asean leaders remain “seriously concerned” over recent developments, and some of them have “concerns” on the land reclamation by China in the area.
When later the South China Sea issue was discussed by the 18 member states of the East Asia Summit (including the US and Russia), its outcome did not vary much, thus signalling that Chinese diplomacy has scored over the American side. While US President Barack Obama is considered a popular figure, the US approach on South China Sea was ineffectual. Uncertainty from the US elections is also a relevant factor.
The East Asia Summit meeting disappointed those who saw in this institution the potential to become the region’s apex body for regional coordination. It deliberated on six priority areas — energy, education, finance, global health, environment and disaster management — and Asean connectivity. It also expressed a shared position on the situation in the Korean Peninsula, terrorism and economic integration. But the overall impression was that without greater unity among Asean nations and stronger Asean-US rapport, the EAS may be unable to play a decisive role.
The latest India-Asean Summit took place in this context. “Asean is central to India’s ‘Act East’ policy,” said Prime Minister Modi. India’s reiteration of support for the unity of Asean was duly reciprocated by Asean’s appreciation for India’s Act East policy and its development programmes like “Make in India”. New Delhi’s calibrated position on the South China Sea issue is appreciated by Asean.
On India-Asean relations, there is ground for satisfaction. The two partners are also on the same page on countering terrorism, though Asean would prefer to avoid India-Pakistan tensions. On economic ties, ensuring progress has been a challenge. Trade is on the decline: it clocked $58.7 billion in 2015, against the $100 billion target set in 2012. Fortunately, the increase in investment is a cause of optimism. Finalisation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, earlier expected to be done by end 2016, could be pushed further into the future. Leaders noted the complexities and reiterated the need for a balanced agreement. They instructed their ministers and officials to intensify negotiations “for the swift conclusion of negotiations”, but no deadline was stipulated.
A key aim for Indian diplomacy is to expand connectivity with Asean. Infrastructure connect-ivity has been the most problematic. Though India’s flagship projects — Trilateral Highway and Kaladan — may not be operational before 2020, there is a clamour from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam that India should keep them in mind. India has, therefore, suggested a joint taskforce on extension of the Highway to Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. Asean is viewed by New Delhi as a partner for development of the Northeast. India’s offer of $1 billion as a new line of credit for connectivity projects, announced last year, is still under discussion. Asean’s response appears to be rather slow. In Vientiane, India also pledged an extra $50 million for the Asean-India Fund.
The overall assessment in East Asia is that geopolitics dominates the agenda. Having absorbed this reality fully, India is engaged in geopolitical competition, focusing to enhance synergy with Asean and partners like the US, Japan, South Korea and Australia. In addition, it continues to strive for stronger bilateral ties with several Asean nations like Vietnam, Myanmar, Singapore and Thailand. This must also include Indonesia. India’s efforts will succeed more if India Inc steps up to the plate and Asean governments and business leaders match their words with action.
The writer is distinguished fellow at Gateway House and a former ambassador to Myanmar