Regionalism gets a big boost in the Northeast

The little-noticed elections to the 40-member Mizoram Assembly came up with a far-reaching verdict — the victory of regionalism in the form of the Mizo National Front (MNF) winning an absolute majority, with 26 seats. The MNF had been a bitter opponent of the BJP during the campaign despite being a constituent unit of the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), a front floated by the saffron party immediately after its victory in Assam in 2016. But among the first announcements that MNF leader Zoramthanga made after the victory was that his party would continue to support the NDA and remain a part of NEDA.

Mizoram needs funds from the Centre to rebuild its moribund roads and other basic infrastructure, and that appears to be the primary reason why the MNF or Mr Zoramthanga for that matter has said they would continue to back the NDA. But it is clear that the MNF is the first regional party in the region that has managed to call the shots vis-a-vis the BJP, which seems to have engulfed the region insofar as assuming power is concerned. The MNF refused to have any alliance with the BJP in the state, saying that there was a serious “clash of ideologies” between the two parties. By taking this stand, the MNF gained considerable backing from the powerful Church in Mizoram that had been apprehensive of the BJP and its “Hindutva ideology” spreading in the largely Christian state. The Congress Party too tried to push the MNF to the wall by saying it had a secret alliance with the BJP, but that allegation did not work.

True, the MNF helped the BJP fulfil its stated objective of achieving a “Congress-mukt Northeast”, but at the same time, the MNF has actually halted the BJP juggernaut in the region. First it was Assam in 2016, where the BJP bagged 61 of the 126 seats in the state Assembly, just two short of the halfway mark. That was no problem because its regional allies, the Asom Gana Parishad and the Bodoland People’s Front, had won enough seats. Then it was the turn of Arunachal Pradesh, where barring the lone Congress MLA Nabam Tuki, the entire bunch of regional party legislators transformed themselves into the BJP, giving the state a BJP government under Pema Khandu. The polls in Manipur saw the BJP bagging a decent number of seats, although the Congress was still the single largest party. But the BJP, with superfast manoeuvres, stitched up an alliance with the National People’s Party, the Naga People’s Front and others.

Then in the state elections that followed in Tripura, and Meghalaya, the BJP managed a spectacular performance, particularly when it managed to overthrow the 25-year-old CPI(M)-led Left Front rule in Tripura. In Nagaland, a Christian-dominated state, the BJP won 12 seats and became a part of the government led by the regional NDPP. The BJP had a deputy chief minister installed. In Meghalaya, the BJP had a poor showing, winning only two seats, but quickly sided with the NPP-led alliance and became a part of the Conrad Sangma government.

It was in this backdrop that the Mizoram elections were held. When the BJP realised that the MNF, its constituent in the regional platform NEDA, was not going to enter into an alliance, the party decided to go it alone. That the BJP was fighting its first serious election in Mizoram was indicated by the fact that it put up candidates in 39 of the 40 seats. The BJP had been contesting elections in Mizoram since 1993. It won one seat when party candidate B.D. Chakma emerged victorious from the Buddhist Chakma-dominated Tuichwang constituency. Mr Chakma had joined the BJP after deserting the Congress, and therefore many said it should be considered a personal victory for Mr Chakma rather than a BJP win. But one cannot deny the fact that the BJP has opened its account in Mizoram.

There are several other takeaways from the Mizoram elections that indicate the possible voter behaviour in the coming days. The margin by which the Congress has been defeated — it managed only five seats despite being in power for 10 years at a stretch — demonstrates an absolute rout of the party. Five-time chief minister Lal Thanhawla lost both the seats he had contested from (Champhai South and Serchhip). Mizoram was the last bastion of the Congress Party in the Northeast. Therefore, the Mizoram polls were seen as a direct battle between Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi — the former anxious about retaining a stronghold in the region, and the latter desperate to open the BJP’s account in the state.

The relevance of regionalism in the country was further demonstrated by another regional party, the Zoram People’s Movement, led by former IPS officer Lalduhoma, which has emerged as the main Opposition party in Mizoram by winning eight seats. Can the MNF then be credited with halting the BJP’s march in the Northeast? The BJP may have opened its account in Mizoram, but it has not done as well as it expected. The focus now would be on the next two Assembly elections that are coming up — in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim.

Can the BJP then take the Northeast for granted in 2019? Perhaps not. It is challenges like these that have perhaps compelled the BJP in a state like Assam to hold on to its regional ally, the Asom Gana Parishad, despite a bitter war of words during the just concluded panchayat elections. While remaining a part of the Assam government, the AGP is opposing the BJP’s move to amend the Citizenship Act to grant citizenship rights to Hindu migrants from Bangladesh and other neighbouring nations who may have fled their countries due to alleged persecution. Despite this, the BJP is tolerating the regional party.

Ahead of 2019, the BJP in the Northeast is strong no doubt, but does not appear to be invincible, as the MNF has demonstrated. But the BJP’s sweep of the panchayat polls in Assam, with the Congress holding on to its number two position, indicates that the party still has its grassroot base intact. However, it simply cannot afford to be complacent.

The writer is a political commentator and editor-in-chief of Northeast Live, the only English-language satellite news channel in the Northeast